Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 400 and 419 times September 5–12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c0c4278699cb1c55cb6fbfdf4a9a5c86b7d5fe26bec3b72bde18dd930d6b390
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $247,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 69,013$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.41 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,205$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x335a…21b9backed Yes | 0c | 11,120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 11,073$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 10,806$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,631$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,607$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 1,870$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe104…d35bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,651$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,249$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 1c | 1,225$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 1,190$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,168$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,046$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 1c | 1,012$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 906.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 2c | 900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 4c | 808.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 2c | 777$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 1c | 771.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 3c | 750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 3c | 660$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 4c | 459.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…4125backed Yes | 13c | 190.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 400 and 419 times September 5–12?this page
- Will Elon tweet 600 or more times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 320 and 339 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 340 and 359 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 360 and 379 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 380 and 399 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 420 and 439 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 440 and 459 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 460 and 479 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 480 and 499 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 500 and 519 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 520 and 539 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 540 and 559 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 560 and 579 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 580 and 599 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.