TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$281,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes5c18,739$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.288206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6dd…c3c2backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes10c11,900$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.2645911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes8c11,659$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.787966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes5c10,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460858.2%7 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes6c9,619$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.715325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes10c7,236$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.7421810.1%22 W · 196 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes10c6,891$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.1528113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes9c5,739$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.3375122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes0c5,224$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede0…9117backed Yes0c5,132$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes7c5,045$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.848310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c3,890$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.82,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c12…4afebacked Yes3c3,607$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes7c3,371$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.6815921.4%34 W · 125 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c3,237$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes8c2,359$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6868615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes5c2,111$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9642110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes5c2,035$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.072437%17 W · 226 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes16c2,006$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32811220.5%23 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6043719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes3c1,785$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.215045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes5c1,555$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.754316.3%7 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+246%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes11c1,429$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1609411.7%11 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes4c1,300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes14c1,297$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.143267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes9c1,100$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023914.2%34 W · 205 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes11c1,059$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.715514.5%8 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes9c1,047$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903613.9%5 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-70.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012411.3%14 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006314.3%9 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805616.1%9 W · 47 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes3c999.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.343420.6%7 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes3c975.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9762713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes1c907.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes13c853.05$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9765623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c766.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.72,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes13c686.01$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6920717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes8c600$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.81619.8%6 W · 55 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes11c595$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8534017.1%58 W · 282 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes10c569$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8943126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655117.6%9 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes4c499.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.772825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes8c405.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.28518.8%16 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes13c400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508924.7%22 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes10c391.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.773215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes10c385.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7865311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes7c346.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.698924.7%22 W · 67 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c346.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7799619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a17…0389backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509013.3%12 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-49.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a9d…2317backed Yes17c301.59$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2770%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x469a…c784backed Yes5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.271127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd712…228dbacked Yes3c290.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02419.8%4 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes11c271.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.624618.7%46 W · 200 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…979ebacked Yes15c268.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddca…239abacked Yes10c258.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.974415.9%7 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb163…6062backed Yes17c253.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.021136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…9fc9backed Yes12c249.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.77911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa124…4891backed Yes10c230$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a1…d54abacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc22…f369backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick18cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x612f…aa53backed Yes9c220$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.93215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc9…4ecebacked Yes15c187.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-28%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes7c179.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.572817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…ca14backed Yes15c173.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265042%21 W · 29 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes9c166.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71438.4%12 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0973…8986backed Yes12c161.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.818615.1%13 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddaf…1d28backed Yes9c145$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65c0…e3cfbacked Yes16c138.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.071323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-47%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes11c136.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513519.3%26 W · 109 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013020%26 W · 104 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c105$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.878811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b58…53fdbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes19c90$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.13315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked Yes19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156535.4%23 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.