Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f2f0094afd1aee6e5e47c64b83e92708e1a523e10cf83a944f6647d08cd1ccd

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 12, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $259,597
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,072

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,597 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	4c	19,203$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.49	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	10,250$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	4c	10,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	9,109$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.16	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	6c	7,565$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.43	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	7c	7,279$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.5	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	4c	6,723$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.06	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	6,210$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.05	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	5,839$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.02	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	3c	5,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	7c	4,370$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.36	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	9c	3,748$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.36	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,414$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.05	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	7c	3,380$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.6	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c26…cf53backed Yes	0c	2,987$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2065…2be5backed Yes	1c	2,193$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	2,039$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.72	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	2,000$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.02	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	9c	1,537$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.88	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	4c	1,466$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.52	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	5c	1,335$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.02	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes	8c	1,144$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.49	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	8c	1,100$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.2	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	9c	1,006$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	9c	1,000$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	6c	1,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.24	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	6c	979.99$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.9	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	10c	977.65$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	7c	947.56$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.39	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes	5c	900$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	896.07$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.2	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	5c	856.3$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.82	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	2c	832.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	8c	795.76$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.18	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes	4c	715.33$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.48	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	6c	610.13$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.17	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	6c	600$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.95	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes	7c	528.32$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.01	142	18.3%26 W · 116 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+124.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	7c	501.37$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe881…541dbacked Yes	7c	476.87$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.46	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes	7c	456.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4d…fbbfbacked Yes	6c	396$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes	3c	370$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	85	18.8%16 W · 69 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes	8c	310.71$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.39	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	7c	302.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddca…239abacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cc9…4ecebacked Yes	5c	275.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-28%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	6c	262$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	8c	249.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	9c	232.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd739…936ebacked Yes	7c	226$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc22…f369backed Yes	9c	222.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0226…7c7bbacked Yes	7c	212$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…9fc9backed Yes	6c	207.47$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.14	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	22cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94db…55f5backed Yes	10c	198.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac4…8401backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	148.87$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5649…0597backed Yes	9c	140.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6947…001fbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event