Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aaa9c6c60544167b7de20ba9f184cb8043b39ec074a861e9bb28d4c9fff6472

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 12, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $421,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $424,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,406 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	12,000$1,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,908.46	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	77c	11,056$8,522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,533.89	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	35c	8,919$3,155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,763.32	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	30c	7,387$2,221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,165.41	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	14c	7,027$1,015 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,012.06	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	61c	6,440$3,911 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,529.01	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	51c	6,015$3,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,934.98	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	32c	5,199$1,679 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,519.78	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	58c	5,071$2,916 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,155.26	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes	72c	4,630$3,352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,277.96	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	46c	4,534$2,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,463.71	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	54c	4,000$2,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,160	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes	45c	3,571$1,613 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,957.9	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	45c	3,216$1,441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,775.73	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	19c	3,099$598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,501.32	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	21c	3,018$626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,391.91	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	16c	2,960$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,499.89	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	34c	2,707$914 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,793.41	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20e5…082abacked Yes	36c	2,564$919 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,644.81	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	26c	2,177$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,612.47	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	18c	2,177$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,783.69	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	28c	2,070$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500.18	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,659.99	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked No	13c	1,955$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.86	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	15c	1,899$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,606.76	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed No	15c	1,880$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.69	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	21c	1,843$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,463.72	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked No	6c	1,829$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.75	95	3.2%3 W · 92 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3371…adfabacked Yes	57c	1,668$957 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.88	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	44c	1,650$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$733.49	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	61c	1,574$963 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610.99	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5637…7599backed Yes	19c	1,515$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,227.76	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes	17c	1,389$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,149.04	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+126.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	17c	1,350$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,120.5	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	27c	1,343$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$977.51	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	17c	1,329$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,098.81	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed No	42c	1,215$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.83	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa124…4891backed Yes	15c	1,173$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,002.79	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	24c	1,169$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$884.07	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	13c	1,145$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000.24	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	15c	1,121$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$955.07	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3765…4a0abacked Yes	76c	1,096$832 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	67cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9977…085fbacked No	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes	24c	963$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$733.55	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No	47c	962.72$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.48	73	28.8%21 W · 52 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	14c	945$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$816.2	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes	7c	849.99$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$790.49	94	11.7%11 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes	70c	840.79$588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.7	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes	65c	834.12$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$291.09	70	45.7%32 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	28c	803.22$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$579.53	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	16c	799.53$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$675.14	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb2…76f2backed Yes	50c	798.5$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$398.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	59c	766.8$453 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.56	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc4d…7fe8backed Yes	22c	753.33$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$587.33	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	11c	752.46$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$668.46	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	55c	751.07$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.68	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No	51c	733.58$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.96	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	21c	712.84$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$563.1	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e1…f3fdbacked Yes	14c	691.65$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$591.51	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-22%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	20c	676.52$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$538.52	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	28c	629.99$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450.59	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	35c	629.23$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$407.48	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3b…3222backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc9…4ecebacked Yes	17c	619.34$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.8	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-28%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes	19c	590.16$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.01	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa94e…91e5backed Yes	45c	566.05$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.9	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9fd…d5b8backed Yes	53c	565.3$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.3	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+2.0wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+76.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	13c	561.54$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.54	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	18c	558.75$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.35	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	21c	558.1$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.1	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	31c	539.19$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$374.19	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes	19c	534.21$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$434.21	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x304d…07f1backed No	7c	521.46$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.72	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	24c	516.35$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$391.2	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0223…34d1backed Yes	19c	514.69$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.69	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed Yes	17c	500$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$415	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No	79c	499.99$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.99	106	65.1%69 W · 37 L	+7.8wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes	56c	499.54$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.04	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes	47c	482.8$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.8	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08c6…8effbacked Yes	21c	482.5$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+141.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb163…6062backed Yes	17c	482.35$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400.35	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	23cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes	21c	476.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$376.19	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9730…4504backed Yes	58c	468.26$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.46	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	45c	452$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.57	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa16f…6df1backed Yes	60c	440.26$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.94	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+81.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes	76c	421.17$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.08	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	13c	394.84$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.26	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes	40c	371.98$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.39	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	28c	370$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	13c	367.47$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.7	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	7c	354$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.96	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	20c	345.35$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.12	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc7…eb28backed Yes	46c	330.02$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.21	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes	58c	330$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.8	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes	15c	324.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.37	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	12c	319.43$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.85	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	38c	313.03$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.03	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0368…8febbacked Yes	26c	307.69$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.69	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6947…001fbacked Yes	24c	305.77$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.77	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes	69c	300.63$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.43	85	18.8%16 W · 69 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event