Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd85b8f6b7e001259941aa7734e385487e49013c6d367727a8122399d71823ac6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $297,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 9c | 20,473$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.17 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 20,143$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.59 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 11,513$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.46 | 467 | 11.3%53 W · 414 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 15c | 6,959$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.4 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 15c | 5,948$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 17c | 5,181$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.87 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…688bbacked Yes | 18c | 4,971$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.24 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +246%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 22c | 4,260$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.88 | 445 | 19.3%86 W · 359 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 3,793$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.66 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 15c | 3,750$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 15c | 3,529$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.32 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 14c | 3,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 203 | 26.6%54 W · 149 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed Yes | 2c | 3,432$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…9117backed Yes | 1c | 3,338$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 11c | 3,300$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.99 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked No | 76c | 2,446$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.27 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 15c | 2,362$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.62 | 549 | 23%126 W · 423 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,358$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 629 | 13.2%83 W · 546 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 14c | 2,301$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,143$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 2,094$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.98 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 17c | 2,005$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 2,001$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,881$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 8c | 1,839$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 20c | 1,681$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.31 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…3127backed Yes | 23c | 1,602$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.05 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 2c | 1,430$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 15c | 1,401$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,366$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 22c | 1,352$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.94 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,280$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.8 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 17c | 1,211$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.29 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 18c | 1,106$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 658 | 23.3%153 W · 505 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 32c | 1,011$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,003$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 29c | 957.59$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.57 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469a…c784backed Yes | 17c | 859.37$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked Yes | 26c | 814.82$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 11c | 795$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 17c | 768$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 17c | 737.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes | 14c | 737.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Yes | 27c | 730.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 526 | 9.9%52 W · 474 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…df18backed No | 70c | 694$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.35 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf80…9d9fbacked No | 73c | 665.49$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…49f9backed Yes | 26c | 640$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.21 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes | 8c | 601.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 32c | 531.25$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc65…29b4backed Yes | 17c | 530.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…4ecebacked Yes | 16c | 502.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 542 | 17.2%93 W · 449 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 78c | 499.95$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb163…6062backed Yes | 12c | 483.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 10c | 452$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes | 23c | 443.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 23c | 441.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9d…2317backed Yes | 19c | 393.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes | 6c | 384.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 11c | 345.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d54abacked Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 25c | 307.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…8febbacked Yes | 26c | 303.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…13cdbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 9c | 242.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 654 | 11%72 W · 582 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c0…e3cfbacked Yes | 23c | 241.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 24c | 240$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 742 | 15.2%113 W · 629 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 8c | 222$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 696 | 15.7%109 W · 587 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 13c | 220$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…48f1backed Yes | 24c | 210.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3d9fbacked Yes | 30c | 210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…1bd4backed Yes | 21c | 205.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc22…f369backed Yes | 10c | 204.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes | 22c | 200.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…aff1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…d054backed Yes | 27c | 183.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 79c | 179.78$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 10c | 177.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 15c | 177.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 29c | 170.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes | 7c | 153.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6999…ca8fbacked Yes | 32c | 150.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b47…25b3backed Yes | 20c | 147.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…ca14backed Yes | 21c | 143.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 11c | 131.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 12c | 117.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 18c | 110.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc793…9fccbacked Yes | 29c | 103.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…0597backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12?this page
- Will Elon tweet 600 or more times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 320 and 339 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 340 and 359 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 360 and 379 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 380 and 399 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 400 and 419 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 420 and 439 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 440 and 459 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 460 and 479 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 480 and 499 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 500 and 519 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 520 and 539 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 540 and 559 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 560 and 579 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 580 and 599 times September 5–12?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.