Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef978eb7485781f08df025c536c253eb21d9f7f9d063ea11ef81b883b570f582

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 12, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $712,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $477,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $712,058 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	62,948$1,077 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,077.21	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	57,576$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	15,727$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,019.75	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	14c	15,477$2,156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,155.97	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	11c	13,502$1,430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,430.48	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	18c	13,103$2,296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,296.13	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	12c	13,070$1,541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,540.74	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	10c	12,539$1,257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,257.19	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	3c	10,708$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.99	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	5c	9,420$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.82	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	7c	9,091$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.51	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	19c	6,943$1,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,331.94	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	10c	5,701$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.14	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	8c	5,469$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.16	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	32c	5,457$1,742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,741.84	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	17c	5,197$904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$903.98	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	16c	5,000$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	16c	4,678$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$733.03	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	4,642$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.04	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	19c	4,610$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.55	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	16c	4,544$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.15	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56bb…8e6bbacked Yes	28c	3,902$1,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,076.36	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	3,566$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.87	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	10c	3,565$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.33	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xede0…9117backed Yes	3c	3,189$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	11c	3,121$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.26	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	18c	3,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	0c	2,978$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	95	3.2%3 W · 92 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	16c	2,800$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	16c	2,772$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.22	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e1…f3fdbacked Yes	6c	2,579$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.94	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-22%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	9c	2,420$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.08	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	22c	2,322$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes	25c	2,288$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.32	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3371…adfabacked Yes	31c	2,126$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650.05	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	14c	2,116$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	11c	2,087$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.42	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes	11c	2,055$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.12	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x969a…e4c5backed Yes	6c	2,050$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.8	113	10.6%12 W · 101 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-56%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	12c	2,017$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.24	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	1,850$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.87	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes	9c	1,700$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.54	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	8cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	64c	1,700$1,082 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$617.98	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	11c	1,688$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.78	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	14c	1,648$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.06	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	9c	1,552$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.72	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…979ebacked Yes	13c	1,521$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	13c	1,496$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.49	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	9c	1,487$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.28	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa124…4891backed Yes	16c	1,483$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.17	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	35c	1,460$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.38	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	10c	1,327$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.76	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b58…53fdbacked Yes	4c	1,310$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.03	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5637…7599backed Yes	20c	1,274$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x618a…0664backed No	64c	1,259$809 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.59	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+185.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes	29c	1,247$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.8	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb765…f696backed Yes	29c	1,214$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.16	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	4c	1,198$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.38	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe863…e221backed Yes	31c	1,193$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.18	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb2…76f2backed Yes	34c	1,176$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	14c	1,162$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.18	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	4c	1,152$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	7c	1,120$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	9c	1,100$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes	13c	1,010$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.4	94	11.7%11 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	1,000$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.21	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes	11c	1,000$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.45	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	12c	995$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.4	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	37c	950.98$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.17	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a9d…2317backed Yes	29c	946.26$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.53	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	27c	923.58$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.38	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	23c	904.83$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.54	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes	6c	900$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes	15c	894.53$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.01	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	2c	892$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.84	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	4c	864.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.33	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	5c	850$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	846$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.59	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	14c	813.12$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.98	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed No	58c	780$452 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.63	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-43%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	12c	750$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.5	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x940d…bde5backed Yes	7c	688$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed Yes	15c	674.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	5c	652.81$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	3c	633.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	17c	603.26$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.61	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x385a…08d1backed Yes	27c	599.99$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.5	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed No	74c	599.01$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.79	65	24.6%16 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes	3c	591.55$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	142	18.3%26 W · 116 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+124.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb38b…d21ebacked Yes	9c	565.05$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	21c	563.77$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.47	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes	15c	526.9$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes	11c	525.34$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.8	135	17%23 W · 112 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	21c	522.86$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.8	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	4c	495.3$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cc9…4ecebacked Yes	18c	488.3$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-28%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xddb4…3a48backed No	68c	487.47$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.66	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-67%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb163…6062backed Yes	17c	479.78$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	23cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x469a…c784backed Yes	18c	458.14$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.24	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event