World Politics · resolved market
Canada election called by midnight?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ae09ce85f7d27d2cf8fd96f2567022b552fe3aa0d830aeb5f1e73c2c883ccf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,080,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,504,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,080,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed No | 1c | 918,444$8,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,629.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…3e65backed No | 0c | 230,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ac…ba11backed No | 0c | 169,823$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 0c | 50,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.23 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…8bc2backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed No | 1c | 33,767$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb6…93f6backed No | 0c | 22,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…231abacked No | 0c | 15,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…515dbacked No | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 0c | 10,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…f256backed No | 17c | 8,766$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…e197backed No | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 2c | 7,283$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,135.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +291.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed No | 2c | 5,508$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae1…96e6backed No | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…6c33backed No | 1c | 5,179$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 13c | 4,878$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.36 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 79c | 4,759$3,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed No | 32c | 3,537$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 48c | 3,091$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.73 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 58c | 2,849$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.48 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 13c | 2,615$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.98 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 64c | 2,082$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.55 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 25c | 1,628$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.79 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 69c | 1,462$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.71 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 3c | 1,311$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 54c | 1,218$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.57 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…d509backed No | 3c | 936.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0a…263dbacked No | 37c | 833.89$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 20c | 682.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked No | 23c | 583.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 71c | 539.46$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…8f12backed No | 56c | 495.46$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 21c | 444$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.98 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 70c | 380$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…20cebacked No | 55c | 299.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 14c | 279$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…be46backed Yes | 7c | 275.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +246.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 14c | 261$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2392…1154backed Yes | 56c | 258.07$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 9c | 240$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 69c | 220$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…07b3backed Yes | 6c | 206.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 27c | 190.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…5215backed No | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…4d87backed No | 22c | 169.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 79c | 147.01$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf008…f798backed Yes | 40c | 144.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yes | 14c | 138$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 57c | 131.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…0f1dbacked No | 33c | 124.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…4254backed No | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760f…13e3backed Yes | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 28c | 95.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…db25backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…618cbacked Yes | 25c | 86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 15c | 85.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad12…7456backed No | 60c | 83.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 75c | 75.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 56c | 69.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…2053backed Yes | 73c | 69.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed No | 22c | 68.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked No | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8924backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…bee0backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…2dbcbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757f…93a4backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…8d32backed Yes | 78c | 39.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…c2f7backed No | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…61dbbacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…193abacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e8…a4f0backed No | 60c | 25.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f16…dd99backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02e…db37backed No | 78c | 16.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed Yes | 78c | 13.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.