Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72ef7bc3334ae334bc8fd50cbc0b00d44a7cec3a5a377fa3add11a628b6ec1f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $489,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $583,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $489,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35e2…2953backed No | 22c | 24,658$5,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,505.68 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 0c | 23,502$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 5c | 11,149$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.74 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 80c | 9,331$7,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.28 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 13c | 8,985$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,861.45 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 8,751$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 6,644$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,759.94 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 0c | 6,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 75c | 5,666$4,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.82 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 72c | 5,314$3,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.03 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 39c | 4,000$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.55 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 20c | 3,356$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.34 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed No | 59c | 3,335$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.01 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 10c | 3,161$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.73 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 19c | 2,715$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,198.38 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 41c | 2,451$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.76 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…2abebacked Yes | 65c | 2,200$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.62 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked No | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 79c | 2,000$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769f…a95bbacked Yes | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 33c | 1,982$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.06 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,962$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.42 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 54c | 1,763$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.26 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…2ce2backed No | 1c | 1,760$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 8c | 1,692$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.82 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 18c | 1,646$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.69 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 1,443$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 50c | 1,393$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.61 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b1…086abacked Yes | 61c | 1,200$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed No | 19c | 1,125$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 59c | 1,100$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 5c | 1,057$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed No | 5c | 1,011$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.39 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.98 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…0a16backed No | 1c | 998$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf80…9d9fbacked No | 15c | 987.36$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…2153backed No | 10c | 972.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 10c | 954.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.55 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 928.88$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.05 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 49c | 910$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.73 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 65c | 906.16$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.41 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…3127backed Yes | 79c | 900$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…7c00backed No | 16c | 849.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 37c | 793.43$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.57 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8008…420abacked No | 1c | 732.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 670.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 6c | 640$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.6 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked No | 29c | 632.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.61 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 3c | 629.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 628.49$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…bd2cbacked No | 18c | 600$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 21c | 596.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 57c | 521.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.65 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 31c | 509.65$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.05 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 47c | 499.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.04 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 27c | 482.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 7c | 466$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed No | 47c | 440.06$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.57 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed No | 45c | 431.11$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 9c | 403.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.81 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 77c | 402.27$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.13 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 67c | 400$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed No | 29c | 374.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…1076backed Yes | 54c | 373.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.68 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 80c | 353.57$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…9762backed No | 18c | 333$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 14c | 317.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.78 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 75c | 301.32$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked No | 76c | 288.93$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.22 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 75c | 254.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.29 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 243.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…e658backed Yes | 69c | 241.22$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 69c | 235.18$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…001fbacked Yes | 40c | 232.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec9…240bbacked No | 13c | 216$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 17c | 216$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 20c | 209.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0d…59d0backed No | 6c | 208.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323d…781cbacked No | 44c | 195.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 80c | 193.75$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 54c | 189.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 54c | 185.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…1cd2backed Yes | 52c | 178.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 77c | 173.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 23c | 172.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.22 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 55c | 154.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 60c | 147.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…4dfdbacked Yes | 55c | 143.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 10c | 141.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…cf38backed Yes | 75c | 133.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8949…5e21backed No | 55c | 131.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 72c | 130.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…155abacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked No | 22c | 124.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 39c | 123.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 310–324 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 340–354 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 355–369 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times August 29–September 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.