Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x530ce11e24c91a3fa794fdb60c0e9bf9e529ef0db4bcf3cf7503505e234675a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $282,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 0c | 51,270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02df…22e1backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 9,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 5,274$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 4,321$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.8 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,900$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…2abebacked Yes | 7c | 2,725$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 2,487$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,323$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 8c | 1,227$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 6c | 1,161$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…0155backed Yes | 1c | 1,027$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 3c | 1,023$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…83f6backed Yes | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 8c | 761.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 8c | 607.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 3c | 525$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 3c | 499.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 310–324 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 340–354 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 355–369 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times August 29–September 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.