Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 355–369 times August 29–September 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc8e35e23ac9e26466f1114806fb8ab98cd2ddb5a571ae4ecb5883e10268569a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $370,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 30,703$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.89 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 2c | 12,557$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…2abebacked Yes | 4c | 11,331$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.03 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eba…1c4dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,638$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 8,547$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.01 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 1c | 8,446$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 1c | 5,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 4,045$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,038$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 4c | 3,679$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.23 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,355$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…fb63backed Yes | 1c | 2,999$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 2,848$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,780$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,602$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 1,938$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 1c | 1,935$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,883$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 1,743$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,236$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,187$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 3c | 1,161$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 3c | 1,115$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 3c | 1,092$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 2c | 1,005$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 995.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 2c | 900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 3c | 681.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 2c | 677.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 2c | 650.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc541…6fd4backed Yes | 3c | 422.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 6c | 379.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 376$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…73dbbacked Yes | 5c | 280$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 355–369 times August 29–September 5?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 310–324 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 340–354 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times August 29–September 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.