World Politics · resolved market
Liberal party signs coalition agreement before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa81d672831e40c15113d1886c3270f902f3b599a845cea74689797032439e0d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 965$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 510.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2392…0d4bbacked Yes | 16c | 420.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…608bbacked Yes | 24c | 401.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…36a2backed No | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8924backed No | 80c | 385$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 331.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 4c | 284.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed Yes | 20c | 284$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 59c | 281.15$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed Yes | 8c | 275$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 267.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 11c | 238.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 5c | 223.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 219$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 45c | 196.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 31c | 127.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 116.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec7…7a26backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…4b04backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…fd28backed Yes | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.