Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Syria by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbe6392f8a0049cdf7b5f47bb4799e910849586d7a5179382a767909ed088600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 18,582$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.85 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 67c | 12,852$8,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,212.97 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 58c | 10,022$5,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,212.94 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 35c | 7,810$2,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,697.22 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,745$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 21c | 3,361$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.55 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 9c | 2,384$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.58 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,237$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.32 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 52c | 2,094$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.88 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 5c | 1,935$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 1,912$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…12fabacked No | 70c | 1,833$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 9c | 1,781$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 6c | 1,682$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…9a12backed Yes | 9c | 1,615$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.62 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f76…a2bfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,263$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 4c | 1,234$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 49c | 1,182$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.3 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 37c | 1,140$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.41 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 52c | 1,068$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.08 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 51c | 985.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 63c | 966.21$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.06 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 77c | 958.76$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.24 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 9c | 940.51$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 922.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 910.31$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 832.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 15c | 824.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 77c | 800$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 8c | 789.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 75c | 773.2$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.31 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 17c | 744$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 50c | 711.54$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.54 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 71c | 706.45$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.59 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0425backed Yes | 15c | 689.22$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…68d1backed Yes | 11c | 670$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 18c | 649.21$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 641.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 12c | 639.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 20c | 627.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.97 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…79d0backed Yes | 8c | 606.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 5c | 581.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 48c | 572.77$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.45 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368f…a1c7backed Yes | 18c | 558.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 24c | 545.94$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 9c | 532$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 531.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed Yes | 15c | 522$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 28c | 513.31$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 504.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 63c | 499.99$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.22 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 6c | 479.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 67c | 455.94$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.48 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 14c | 440.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 20c | 408.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked No | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed No | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.35 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 18c | 386$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…c07cbacked Yes | 8c | 368.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…b4dcbacked Yes | 28c | 360.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked No | 25c | 353.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 25c | 353.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…c124backed Yes | 11c | 347.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 78c | 319.82$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 21c | 310.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 13c | 310.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 56c | 288.48$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 29c | 283.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 280.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 26c | 280$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…cfa8backed No | 72c | 276.53$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…65a2backed Yes | 16c | 270.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 73c | 267$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80e…afe1backed Yes | 21c | 234.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 61c | 221.86$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.12 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 52c | 220$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…292ebacked No | 59c | 220$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…282ebacked No | 70c | 205$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…b715backed No | 48c | 179.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.72 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 12c | 171.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes | 16c | 170.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc572…5e4cbacked Yes | 60c | 165.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 33c | 152$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1376…f802backed Yes | 19c | 151.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…2169backed Yes | 30c | 151$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…b7fdbacked Yes | 9c | 120.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 104.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…34b0backed Yes | 24c | 103.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3767…5e7cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288c…8615backed Yes | 15c | 97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.