Tweets · resolved market
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cd24dbeab339781dd27b16a3a8a1e1b2792eb4de9a838b37328b2cb04340f15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,306$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed No | 58c | 1,696$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,309$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 59c | 963.64$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.04 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…d82cbacked Yes | 52c | 851.43$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 44c | 800.47$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.3 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 43c | 735.17$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Yes | 50c | 715.11$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 20c | 506.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 49c | 346.41$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed Yes | 18c | 340$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed No | 49c | 322.12$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 42c | 311.91$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.54 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 253.81$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.02 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 79c | 251$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…b4e0backed No | 60c | 242.44$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 59c | 217.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 52c | 212.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…01afbacked No | 79c | 209.53$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…f029backed Yes | 54c | 206$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 199.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 194.88$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.29 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked No | 48c | 190.73$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881c…5733backed No | 40c | 182.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 33c | 177.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 22c | 177.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…ae86backed No | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 78c | 143.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c0…b92cbacked No | 78c | 143.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked Yes | 47c | 140.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Yes | 50c | 138.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 62c | 133.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5d…b48abacked No | 45c | 124$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 56c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 46c | 109.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…79bfbacked No | 77c | 100.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5131…2541backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…4736backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 49c | 94.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed No | 45c | 93.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…2be5backed No | 80c | 89.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 17c | 86.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 49c | 83.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 48c | 82.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 49c | 79.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed No | 40c | 74.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 56c | 71.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf89a…ad34backed Yes | 61c | 70.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 38c | 63.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d30…cd30backed Yes | 67c | 62.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…3127backed No | 39c | 59.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…4663backed Yes | 55c | 59.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +55%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…6c70backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 29c | 48.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 35c | 43.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…e7d0backed Yes | 62c | 35.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9aa…3d62backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…4393backed No | 43c | 27.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab3…d0d9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 54c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…520bbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.