Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f218208ee7bee0897b5f683790ab945b7db5311886fd39641d476dffdd8944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed No | 72c | 3,048$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,991$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.69 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 5c | 820.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.3 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 37c | 594.33$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 35c | 399.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 66c | 345$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 49c | 302.82$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 29c | 298.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 34c | 261.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.71 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 26c | 235.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.91 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 41c | 215$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed No | 12c | 157.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…4252backed Yes | 35c | 139.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 132$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 19c | 124.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…4ef7backed Yes | 69c | 122.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 16c | 122.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…a1c7backed No | 50c | 118.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…04f3backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 73c | 97.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 18c | 91.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 90.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 66c | 89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Yes | 71c | 64.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…3332backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…5a16backed No | 35c | 57.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…fb7dbacked Yes | 70c | 43.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e7…5cc4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 60c | 26.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…6cdbbacked Yes | 75c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 78c | 17.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 23?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 22?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 24?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.