Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5087e1db48283bbd81d27aec1abafbf327141821bc4ff1d3c7f06b1ce5833e1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 2c | 7,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 3,162$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed No | 2c | 1,120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 12c | 832$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 633.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 5c | 570.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 459.77$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…22d0backed No | 3c | 374$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 19c | 309.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed No | 17c | 232.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 67c | 141.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed No | 74c | 135.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 128.44$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 34c | 68.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 35c | 52.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 39c | 51.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Yes | 39c | 45.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…4ef7backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed No | 76c | 39.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 24?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 22?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 23?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.