Us Politics · resolved market
Trump blames Biden for Iran-Israel escalation by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0790415725dab091a7a060b231f2aff5e044e938efff6d6a4b5e0804d7c3da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 7c | 2,587$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.61 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 19c | 2,442$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.59 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 2,299$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,023$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 25c | 1,975$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.22 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 16c | 1,638$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.7 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,600$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.89 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 21c | 1,267$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 15c | 1,200$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 77c | 999.99$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 16c | 735.35$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes | 15c | 675.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…964dbacked Yes | 7c | 603.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 79c | 599.97$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 9c | 588.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 22c | 500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 3c | 485.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 80c | 463.75$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 18c | 449.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 33c | 400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 18c | 311.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec8…d3f4backed Yes | 18c | 280.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…2553backed Yes | 18c | 277.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 16c | 248.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…147ebacked Yes | 20c | 241.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 18c | 221.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 200.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…9942backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…e0e1backed No | 79c | 190$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 17c | 183$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…824cbacked Yes | 15c | 161.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 18c | 160.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 157.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…7d87backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…3959backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 147$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 133.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…b715backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 71c | 115$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…9945backed Yes | 18c | 110.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…d88cbacked Yes | 32c | 91.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…dcddbacked Yes | 11c | 88.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 12c | 84.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…cb5abacked Yes | 20c | 81.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked Yes | 17c | 71.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 72c | 63.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 64c | 56.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…e1fcbacked Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 22c | 51.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…b156backed Yes | 32c | 47.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 43.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb18…d29abacked No | 79c | 38.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…32cbbacked No | 75c | 33.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 79c | 32.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 64c | 22.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.