Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e2c7a1aec5fb75bd1233023f5dc7478777a6afa6aa2d22e171eb50c077cc601
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $405,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 25,031$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 20,472$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.23 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 2c | 19,388$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.53 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed Yes | 1c | 16,445$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 2c | 13,169$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.64 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,912$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 15c | 9,073$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.12 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 8,003$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 7,744$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.81 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 1c | 7,415$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 6,250$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.75 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce6…121ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 1c | 6,099$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 2c | 5,777$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 4c | 4,703$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 6c | 4,542$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.96 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 4,257$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.85 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 12c | 4,207$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.33 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 2c | 4,180$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,703$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,610$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,255$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd484…8280backed Yes | 1c | 2,449$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 2,428$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.47 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 8c | 2,406$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 8c | 1,702$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 1,673$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469a…c784backed Yes | 1c | 1,621$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,520$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 17c | 1,410$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.82 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…37babacked Yes | 3c | 1,385$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 21c | 1,383$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.8 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…a490backed Yes | 5c | 1,364$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…3127backed Yes | 3c | 1,344$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,335$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…2d4fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,220$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes | 5c | 1,126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 4c | 1,079$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 1c | 979.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 1c | 974.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 7c | 934.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 931.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 8c | 878.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 3c | 870$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 781$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…541dbacked Yes | 7c | 725.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 4c | 714.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 13c | 680.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes | 7c | 610$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 569.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 4c | 561$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 4c | 550$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…69c5backed Yes | 2c | 504.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 7c | 454.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 5c | 449.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes | 4c | 445.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 11c | 439.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 2c | 433.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 412$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3950…4282backed Yes | 5c | 402.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 4c | 392.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f4…a427backed Yes | 10c | 386$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 13c | 344.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 5c | 331$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 8c | 297.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked Yes | 14c | 287.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…0b56backed Yes | 20c | 253.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 14c | 228.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…2e9bbacked Yes | 6c | 223.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…2e26backed Yes | 7c | 220.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f2…ca79backed Yes | 6c | 219.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…ba89backed Yes | 7c | 213.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…fb8cbacked Yes | 7c | 205.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…16e0backed Yes | 14c | 194.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0601…b06fbacked Yes | 12c | 187.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…d054backed Yes | 21c | 171.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…001fbacked Yes | 20c | 167.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…943bbacked Yes | 7c | 145.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 19c | 144.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…c260backed Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed Yes | 24c | 84.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x649c…e02dbacked Yes | 24c | 83.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5?this page
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 330 and 359 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 360 and 389 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 450 and 479 times August 29–September 5?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 540 and 569 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 570 and 599 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 600 and 629 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 630 and 659 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 660 and 689 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 690 and 719 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 720 and 749 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 750 and 779 times August 29–September 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.