Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d4e2f4a0caf88c8d19d0df507e0228c82dc5a9a22d9197db3c4a72e6c74fe8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $395,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $363,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 67c | 21,829$14,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,648.44 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 47c | 17,802$8,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,328.79 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 10c | 17,369$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.52 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 0c | 17,360$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked Yes | 46c | 16,412$7,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,554.05 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0392…6b99backed Yes | 0c | 14,850$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 20c | 13,000$2,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,557.56 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 15c | 11,651$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.55 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 57c | 10,002$5,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,689.39 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 56c | 8,684$4,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,839.74 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 46c | 7,675$3,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,131.68 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 38c | 7,060$2,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.53 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 31c | 5,746$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.67 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 62c | 5,415$3,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.34 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd484…8280backed No | 74c | 4,587$3,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 29c | 3,377$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.01 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 60c | 2,882$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.95 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 2,763$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.25 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 39c | 2,523$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.43 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 46c | 2,388$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.59 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 26c | 2,308$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.43 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 2,275$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.98 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 37c | 2,211$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.8 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 23c | 2,197$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.19 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 2,180$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 54c | 2,100$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eea…5337backed No | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d50…8eebbacked No | 71c | 1,998$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.32 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 31c | 1,959$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.35 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 51c | 1,803$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.41 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 59c | 1,698$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 59c | 1,605$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.62 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 74c | 1,586$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…269bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 20c | 1,553$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.97 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,498$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.32 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…eb60backed No | 56c | 1,477$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 40c | 1,463$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.2 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 55c | 1,445$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.26 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 33c | 1,433$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 21c | 1,364$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.25 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 76c | 1,349$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.77 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 1,307$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.22 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 35c | 1,121$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.35 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,091$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 32c | 1,031$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.39 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…69c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 35c | 998.35$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.15 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 62c | 970.13$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.63 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3765…4a0abacked Yes | 59c | 933.12$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 32c | 901.87$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.83 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 31c | 856.17$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.62 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed Yes | 47c | 851.16$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 54c | 850.71$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.2 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc384…1046backed No | 78c | 798.67$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes | 32c | 760.52$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.42 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…158cbacked No | 80c | 752.44$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.44 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…7fe8backed Yes | 43c | 717.52$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 70c | 710.85$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 48c | 676.49$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.87 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 4c | 660$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 33c | 622.26$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.91 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes | 34c | 606.6$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.1 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 47c | 600$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 35c | 568$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.26 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 65c | 541.15$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.77 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 76c | 529.04$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.04 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed No | 31c | 510$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.7 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed No | 24c | 500$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 731 | 15.2%111 W · 620 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 51c | 499.88$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.92 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed No | 48c | 495.5$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 36c | 480.34$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.72 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 44c | 466$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.11 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed3…777fbacked Yes | 61c | 459.95$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 53c | 443.61$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.61 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423c…25d5backed Yes | 40c | 439.66$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 40c | 435.59$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 77c | 413.62$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46de…efb0backed Yes | 70c | 411.65$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 35c | 393.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.06 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed No | 39c | 384.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.3 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x925c…fb35backed No | 58c | 382.54$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…d054backed Yes | 48c | 377.56$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.62 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 39c | 369.59$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 366.42$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes | 40c | 364.43$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.57 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 46c | 359.66$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.41 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…3127backed Yes | 28c | 353.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…0d6dbacked No | 57c | 351.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.64 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…4f80backed Yes | 9c | 349.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 13c | 347.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 28c | 332.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 31c | 324.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed No | 26c | 300$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?this page
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 330 and 359 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 360 and 389 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 450 and 479 times August 29–September 5?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 540 and 569 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 570 and 599 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 600 and 629 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 630 and 659 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 660 and 689 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 690 and 719 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 720 and 749 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 750 and 779 times August 29–September 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.