Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb35d1202ceb581442f10fa8e08ac1067668b81a1c812d0983e41bc828b19ccef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 13,448$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,441$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,402$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,236$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,999$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 4,620$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,377$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 11c | 3,996$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.12 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 2c | 3,316$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 0c | 3,024$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,879$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 2,633$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.98 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 2,567$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.63 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 9c | 1,876$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.98 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 13c | 1,803$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.94 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 8c | 1,747$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 1,305$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.78 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…2ab2backed Yes | 2c | 1,215$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,210$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 1,172$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 2c | 1,078$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 1c | 789.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 12c | 713.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes | 9c | 675.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…2ce2backed Yes | 2c | 673.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 11c | 669.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 13c | 665.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…deb3backed Yes | 2c | 655$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 646.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 2c | 585.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 6c | 564.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 3c | 550$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 15c | 455.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…a84bbacked Yes | 10c | 405.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 9c | 380.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 13c | 313.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 8c | 253.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 14c | 176.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 142.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649c…e02dbacked Yes | 15c | 132.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 15c | 130.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…9637backed Yes | 14c | 108.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…ca14backed Yes | 12c | 104.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…bd89backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…c260backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 13c | 86.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb9…190dbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5?this page
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 330 and 359 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 360 and 389 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 450 and 479 times August 29–September 5?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 540 and 569 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 570 and 599 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 600 and 629 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 630 and 659 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 660 and 689 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 690 and 719 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 720 and 749 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 750 and 779 times August 29–September 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.