Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 450 and 479 times August 29–September 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f54047007015a9fb2a1299d86da2652242e39389f840cfc97b49b96a1ddec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $385,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked Yes | 72c | 20,353$14,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,733.09 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 0c | 12,872$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 32c | 9,001$2,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,130.82 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 28c | 7,267$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,239.13 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 7,007$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,225.73 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 36c | 5,760$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,714.13 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 44c | 4,469$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.14 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 30c | 3,190$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246.78 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 59c | 3,128$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.09 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 18c | 2,805$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.75 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 36c | 2,771$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.43 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 57c | 2,670$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 28c | 2,533$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.29 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 30c | 2,406$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.44 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 26c | 2,216$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.75 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 48c | 2,126$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.19 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 31c | 2,024$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.32 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed No | 8c | 1,875$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 26c | 1,800$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 32c | 1,775$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.07 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 36c | 1,730$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.95 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd484…8280backed Yes | 37c | 1,714$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 1,699$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.8 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 46c | 1,637$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…7b94backed Yes | 46c | 1,611$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 15c | 1,598$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 15c | 1,597$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.26 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…7fe8backed Yes | 30c | 1,424$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.71 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eea…5337backed Yes | 36c | 1,366$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,309$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.19 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 50c | 1,295$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.38 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 1,240$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.6 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,200$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 1,160$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.74 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 71c | 1,041$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce6…121ebacked Yes | 58c | 1,029$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…2799backed Yes | 56c | 1,023$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 1,021$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.89 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 14c | 998$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 958.64$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.47 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes | 48c | 957.71$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.86 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 32c | 933.31$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.23 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 53c | 931.78$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 46c | 931.33$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 59c | 870.95$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.95 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 31c | 824.97$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.34 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 29c | 819.5$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 44c | 810.99$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.17 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 27c | 719.8$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.38 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 28c | 679.52$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.28 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 57c | 677.18$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.38 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed No | 6c | 650$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…d054backed Yes | 72c | 636.11$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 31c | 633.66$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.86 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423c…25d5backed Yes | 50c | 626.17$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469a…c784backed Yes | 35c | 625$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 612.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.19 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes | 28c | 597$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.21 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 27c | 552.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes | 19c | 538.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.88 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed3…777fbacked Yes | 60c | 532.29$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 37c | 521.62$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.62 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.38 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…37babacked Yes | 44c | 499.61$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.33 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 38c | 498.25$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 37c | 489.81$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…a490backed Yes | 54c | 485.22$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 42c | 476$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.08 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 33c | 454.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.89 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 4c | 430.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…d605backed Yes | 27c | 412.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…b78cbacked Yes | 46c | 400$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 44c | 399.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 51c | 391.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.44 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed Yes | 76c | 385.56$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 48c | 350.74$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed Yes | 25c | 334.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.94 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…3127backed Yes | 22c | 320$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5393…45c5backed Yes | 62c | 318.08$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18db…fbc2backed Yes | 16c | 296.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked Yes | 30c | 294.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 68c | 288.6$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed Yes | 49c | 286.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +203.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 35c | 285.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.03 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 36c | 278.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.01 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 36c | 275.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.57 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 28c | 268.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.76 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 46c | 267.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.78 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 46c | 263.23$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.95 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3950…4282backed Yes | 64c | 253.92$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 23c | 245.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.41 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Yes | 43c | 231.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…55f5backed Yes | 26c | 211.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 37c | 207.26$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 25c | 201.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…07fbbacked Yes | 78c | 199$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…3a48backed No | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 450 and 479 times August 29–September 5?this page
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 330 and 359 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 360 and 389 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 510 and 539 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 540 and 569 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 570 and 599 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 600 and 629 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 630 and 659 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 660 and 689 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 690 and 719 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 720 and 749 times August 29–September 5?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 750 and 779 times August 29–September 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.