Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d78034f23ad050a134e4b15e22f3168f70f50d4c73a96f8be71324904a1bb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $566,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $442,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $566,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 14c | 17,937$2,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,385.37 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 60c | 14,264$8,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,770.74 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 12c | 11,818$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,366.38 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 11,647$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,512.49 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 9,472$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,646.7 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 66c | 8,530$5,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,937.16 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 9c | 8,509$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,714.06 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,768.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 15c | 7,487$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,357.1 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 13c | 6,021$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,222.04 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 19c | 5,888$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,750.01 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 12c | 5,026$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,427.99 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 44c | 4,909$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,770.62 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 15c | 4,900$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,172.35 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 4,825$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,386.18 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 2c | 4,300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 19c | 4,261$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,449.5 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 10c | 3,714$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,351.83 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed No | 78c | 3,415$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 49c | 3,069$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.67 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 12c | 2,852$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,507.2 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 17c | 2,792$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.43 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 21c | 2,700$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.15 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,521$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.39 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…73cabacked Yes | 17c | 2,510$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 22c | 2,500$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954.53 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 63c | 2,388$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.07 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 34c | 2,196$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.62 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 15c | 2,055$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.45 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 20c | 2,043$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.27 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 13c | 1,911$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.88 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 8c | 1,609$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.64 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 5c | 1,604$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.68 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,502$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.59 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 53c | 1,493$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.58 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 80c | 1,399$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.5 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…1bd4backed Yes | 48c | 1,294$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 17c | 1,282$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.99 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 1,227$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.19 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,189$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.37 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed Yes | 7c | 1,184$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 8c | 1,178$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.17 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 10c | 1,160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.8 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 12c | 1,151$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.64 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 13c | 1,071$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.08 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 16c | 1,063$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.5 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed No | 8c | 1,040$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 1,028$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.78 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 17c | 1,023$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.38 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.6 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3a…f674backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.25 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 21c | 991.06$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.74 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes | 37c | 932.4$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.86 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…2ab2backed Yes | 25c | 929.7$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 10c | 900$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…83f6backed Yes | 11c | 884.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.62 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 41c | 881.65$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.32 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 10c | 872.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.1 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 10c | 861.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…241fbacked Yes | 13c | 837.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 17c | 832.67$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.99 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 74c | 787.66$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…2358backed Yes | 12c | 758.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 2c | 689.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.79 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 12c | 681.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.72 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 6c | 661.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.63 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…d452backed Yes | 2c | 620$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 7cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 21c | 606.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.35 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…d054backed Yes | 30c | 596.67$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.21 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…02c6backed Yes | 41c | 556.85$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.27 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 553.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.86 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 17c | 532.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.25 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 21c | 504.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.76 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 10c | 490.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.79 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 10c | 481.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.83 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 12c | 479.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.74 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Yes | 45c | 477.76$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 9c | 474.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.19 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Yes | 13c | 455.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 6c | 450$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394b…0cecbacked Yes | 18c | 442.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed Yes | 7c | 439.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked Yes | 13c | 415.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 11c | 411.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.71 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb73f…21e5backed Yes | 25c | 409.49$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…c997backed Yes | 9c | 399.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.74 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 10c | 396.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.49 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 23c | 395.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.65 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 29c | 383.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.8 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 14c | 382.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.3 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 17c | 354.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.43 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.