Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6966b52681227dae7b391b11ec585b50040e31765fd12619b7a8678f586729c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 12,884$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.48 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 5,432$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.6 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 7c | 4,848$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.1 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 10c | 4,805$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.78 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 2c | 4,172$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 9c | 3,614$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,341$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.77 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 5c | 2,898$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,866$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 2,276$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 5c | 1,724$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 1,715$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 9c | 1,608$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…31a4backed Yes | 9c | 1,215$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…dd37backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,106$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,076$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 7c | 999$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 904.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…83f6backed Yes | 6c | 830.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 3c | 815.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 663.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b82…bfdebacked Yes | 5c | 646.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 6c | 646.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 5c | 569.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 9c | 536.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 433.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 425.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…5f1abacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 9c | 395.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 14c | 363$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 6c | 350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 7c | 332.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 5c | 332.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad36…bbfdbacked Yes | 8c | 318.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 10c | 299.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…6434backed Yes | 5c | 256$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe82b…c5babacked Yes | 5c | 254$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743a…8bb5backed Yes | 5c | 254$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…a797backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 6c | 228.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1e…0538backed Yes | 5c | 227$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 9c | 224.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9206…42a1backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…2ab2backed Yes | 5c | 204.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…c997backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…f4bbbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 6c | 196.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…f955backed Yes | 7c | 184$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 11c | 167.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…b547backed Yes | 7c | 165$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…0597backed Yes | 9c | 154.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a0…6a16backed Yes | 8c | 142.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…9fb0backed Yes | 9c | 131$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3f…c1f9backed Yes | 12c | 125.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…a4a1backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 10c | 121.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.