Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e9323ca6660ebed38231066a66f0443695def16ede5fbe2c626061b4eb76704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $763,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $763,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 41,832$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.38 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 5c | 28,989$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 9c | 19,386$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 17,826$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.6 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 0c | 17,639$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,695$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 8c | 12,691$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.84 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,131$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.94 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 4c | 11,528$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.58 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…2a75backed Yes | 1c | 11,419$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 0c | 11,402$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 3c | 10,262$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.69 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 9,911$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.89 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 6c | 9,495$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.19 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 9,437$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 4c | 8,605$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.53 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 6,980$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 6,300$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.37 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 3c | 5,811$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,372$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.75 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342f…ff3abacked Yes | 1c | 5,297$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 9c | 5,221$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.31 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 3,615$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,567$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 9c | 3,402$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.79 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 8c | 3,019$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.12 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed Yes | 3c | 2,421$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 1c | 2,276$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 3c | 2,230$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,224$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,078$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…61b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,936$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,782$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 9c | 1,779$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.33 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,735$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…83f6backed Yes | 9c | 1,689$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…0239backed Yes | 1c | 1,681$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,615$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,582$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,578$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.89 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 1c | 1,365$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 11c | 1,331$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Yes | 1c | 1,323$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…7fe8backed Yes | 6c | 1,322$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…c311backed Yes | 16c | 1,284$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,264$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 2c | 1,256$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed Yes | 16c | 1,244$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…31a4backed Yes | 4c | 1,243$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 3c | 1,207$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 4c | 1,176$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 3c | 1,167$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 14c | 1,157$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…838ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,108$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked Yes | 3c | 1,059$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 3c | 1,049$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…dd37backed Yes | 8c | 1,033$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…bbd7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 13c | 999.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 11c | 943$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…5f1abacked Yes | 14c | 827.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 3c | 799.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 7c | 787.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9574…ebb2backed Yes | 8c | 746.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c4…dbc6backed Yes | 6c | 743.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…9260backed Yes | 3c | 685.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 10c | 682.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f5…9c45backed Yes | 16c | 665.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 10c | 632.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…813abacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 8c | 620.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked Yes | 8c | 608.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…2ab2backed Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 4c | 599.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…8f0bbacked Yes | 6c | 590.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 3c | 583.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…9cb7backed Yes | 7c | 556.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…c918backed Yes | 3c | 555$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 2c | 553.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 4c | 550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 7c | 545.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…4f8abacked Yes | 4c | 539.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…8608backed Yes | 15c | 528.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes | 2c | 528.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 6c | 500.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 10c | 458.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…293fbacked Yes | 3c | 454.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…c997backed Yes | 7c | 448.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 7c | 436.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes | 11c | 433.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 4c | 405.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…e932backed Yes | 5c | 403.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 3c | 392.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.