TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$302,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes2c26,624$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.217966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c8,752$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.771,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes0c7,579$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.873267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes9c6,527$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.6521810.1%22 W · 196 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes9c5,756$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.4812015%18 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes9c4,192$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.765045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes8c4,057$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.0575122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes1c4,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1313.2%1 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-69.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes8c3,380$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.5748310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes5c3,354$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.411818.3%15 W · 166 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes3c2,840$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.556817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes0c2,819$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1318412%22 W · 162 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes8c2,221$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.99628.1%5 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes11c2,042$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.419013.3%12 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-49.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6043719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,545$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.122,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes3c1,531$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.331779%16 W · 161 L+0.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-70.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes7c1,518$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7615921.4%34 W · 125 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x097d…83f6backed Yes11c1,485$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes10c1,391$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.095111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes13c1,242$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16041017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes1c1,168$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.48518.8%16 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4340…0202backed Yes2c1,084$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273810.5%4 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x289c…dd37backed Yes9c1,075$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes11c1,010$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9582714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708822.7%20 W · 68 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fe…a41abacked Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes5c900$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4113818.8%26 W · 112 L-0.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x350e…ed02backed Yes5c800$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.43026.7%8 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes8c624.41$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8323217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes9c610.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8334017.1%58 W · 282 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes9c600$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556410.9%7 W · 57 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c588.75$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0778811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes2c576.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.278922.5%20 W · 69 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes8c572$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.326615.2%10 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes14c536.13$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755117.6%9 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…2a75backed Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes7c479.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.59947.4%7 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes11c464.03$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0465623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc9…7a15backed Yes9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011319.5%22 W · 91 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0a8…5f1abacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405320.8%11 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes14c360.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes7c351.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2565311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes14c350$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4922119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3042110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308924.7%22 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes8c268.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2213519.3%26 W · 109 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes8c262.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8473215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes8c257.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013011.5%15 W · 115 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad36…bbfdbacked Yes10c251.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes12c250$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6341220.6%85 W · 327 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes10c241.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.720717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfceb…37dabacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7d0a…a914backed Yes10c220$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18db…fbc2backed Yes11c219.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.161030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+95.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c06…db24backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes18c195.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.228113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e6…140cbacked Yes9c185.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.711910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-70.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a8d…23acbacked Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf50c…f4bbbacked Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes12c168.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124618.7%46 W · 200 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a3…61b6backed Yes7c160$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.05922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d49…9601backed Yes12c158.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.564020%8 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53420.6%7 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+78.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc2e…4f8abacked Yes7c144.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x394b…0cecbacked Yes11c119.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.05922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6258011.4%66 W · 514 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12619.8%6 W · 55 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3f…c1f9backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e12…e4e7backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdc…0658backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109417%16 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6947…001fbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc908…f7c8backed Yes14c90.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ad…9cb0backed Yes16c86.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912a…a3babacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9a…ce47backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.