Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27cd75dabcc04c4495173c635d9aec282a9023da9714564f67b4099e27d3f50c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $481,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 45,273$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.74 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 13c | 15,319$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.82 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…0597backed Yes | 0c | 14,703$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 18c | 13,392$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.58 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 17c | 10,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 11c | 9,612$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.61 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 12c | 7,050$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.63 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 16c | 6,506$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.91 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 21c | 6,306$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.73 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,258$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,047$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.85 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 3c | 5,895$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.52 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 15c | 5,865$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.92 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 10c | 5,531$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.45 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 15c | 4,362$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.75 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 9c | 4,253$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 13c | 3,998$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.96 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 14c | 3,929$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.91 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 3,625$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.39 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 12c | 3,326$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.16 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,199$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.12 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 19c | 3,000$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.76 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 13c | 2,894$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 42c | 2,394$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.96 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…83f6backed Yes | 9c | 2,237$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 1,951$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 20c | 1,948$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.57 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73f…21e5backed Yes | 30c | 1,889$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 1,832$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 22c | 1,690$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.84 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,550$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…73cabacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.02 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 25c | 1,477$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.65 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,471$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.27 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 3c | 1,460$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 79c | 1,449$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.69 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 1,441$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.95 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 1,410$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 17c | 1,333$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.94 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 75c | 1,269$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.56 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 19c | 1,246$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.15 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 12c | 1,084$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 14c | 1,031$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Yes | 48c | 1,007$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 2c | 1,004$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 960.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 9c | 949.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 5c | 944.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 18c | 943$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 13c | 938.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 14c | 928.57$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 48c | 902.82$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.47 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 5c | 884$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 14c | 868.16$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 5c | 868.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9100…1bfbbacked Yes | 12c | 865.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 28c | 848.02$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 8c | 823.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 819.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 9c | 805.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes | 15c | 768.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 14c | 749.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…9cb7backed Yes | 5c | 740$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…d054backed Yes | 15c | 692.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked Yes | 9c | 678.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…7fe8backed Yes | 9c | 673.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 24c | 606.5$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 10c | 550$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 19c | 527$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 19c | 514.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…2abebacked No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 5c | 490.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 20c | 484.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdce…a1d1backed Yes | 7c | 473.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 17c | 470.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…dd37backed Yes | 12c | 470.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 20c | 457.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 17c | 453.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…9720backed Yes | 4c | 450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 34c | 436.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 5c | 432.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 11c | 430.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…c311backed Yes | 7c | 424.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9574…ebb2backed Yes | 10c | 422.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 412$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes | 5c | 411.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…5f1abacked Yes | 13c | 405.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 402.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…c997backed Yes | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 8c | 397.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 16c | 394.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed Yes | 9c | 392.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…6eadbacked Yes | 4c | 390.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 24c | 372.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 21c | 368.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.