Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77cc143ca25f3609e1230252851099b6d372306cd79e6aa23053524e7782c8b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $527,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $414,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $527,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 27c | 18,301$4,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,862.19 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 78c | 17,300$13,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,840.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 49c | 12,839$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,240.23 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 42c | 11,822$4,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,994.12 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 11c | 10,637$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.42 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 9,940$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.74 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 52c | 8,723$4,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,493.04 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 59c | 8,344$4,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,934.62 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 14c | 6,050$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.6 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 0c | 5,761$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 37c | 5,672$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.7 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…2358backed Yes | 3c | 5,189$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd446…c2c7backed Yes | 2c | 5,104$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 13c | 4,893$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.58 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…1bd4backed Yes | 71c | 4,645$3,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,282.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 8c | 4,410$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.43 | 731 | 15.2%111 W · 620 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 12c | 4,050$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.66 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 14c | 3,891$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.04 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 59c | 3,619$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 8c | 3,523$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.15 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 21c | 3,075$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.52 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 19c | 3,039$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.15 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…1173backed Yes | 25c | 2,704$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 14c | 2,646$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.06 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…8ec1backed Yes | 3c | 2,626$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…5f73backed Yes | 77c | 2,596$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 17c | 2,532$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.33 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 36c | 2,463$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.64 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 77c | 2,444$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 80c | 2,401$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.46 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 17c | 2,349$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.08 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 11c | 2,325$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.25 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…5e50backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 31c | 2,041$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.26 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 39c | 1,904$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.15 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,885$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 1,854$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.17 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 45c | 1,771$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.71 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 6c | 1,716$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 14c | 1,700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed Yes | 74c | 1,626$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.41 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 13c | 1,607$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 7c | 1,606$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…68e2backed Yes | 17c | 1,600$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 46c | 1,514$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.85 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…73cabacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 38c | 1,370$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.35 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 33c | 1,259$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.1 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 16c | 1,240$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.17 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,170$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,150$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.75 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 11c | 1,141$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73f…21e5backed Yes | 18c | 1,099$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…158fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,075$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 1,032$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.41 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 966.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.94 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 10c | 928.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…83f6backed Yes | 11c | 919.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 824.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9100…1bfbbacked Yes | 13c | 797.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 40c | 782.7$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.28 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed No | 20c | 770$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.3 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 3c | 757.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…07fbbacked Yes | 71c | 741.23$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 14c | 729.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 56c | 717.2$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 21c | 712.72$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.53 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…02c6backed Yes | 73c | 690.01$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.83 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Yes | 57c | 689.51$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed Yes | 16c | 625.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 45c | 622$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.9 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 39c | 606.5$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.19 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…2abebacked Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 16c | 552.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3a…f674backed Yes | 31c | 550$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 43c | 550$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.88 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 18c | 545.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 15c | 541.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed No | 9c | 499.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.63 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 23c | 484.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 18c | 477.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 12c | 466.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 20c | 450.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…73dbbacked Yes | 4c | 450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes | 25c | 449.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…13cdbacked Yes | 47c | 436.32$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 11c | 428.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 19c | 407.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 57c | 401.06$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.69 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…c997backed Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 17c | 390$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes | 59c | 387.46$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.23 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 385.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked Yes | 19c | 369.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes | 24c | 368.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 51c | 364.04$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.45 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 360.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.