Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87a855c9d4ef50405e88bcb421c2529fe010a6de7101cb17a71ce4db8c79782f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 16,076$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.67 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 6,932$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 5c | 6,470$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.44 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 5,075$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,050$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,265$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 6c | 2,124$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,800$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 2c | 1,743$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,736$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 4c | 1,638$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,440$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 5c | 1,316$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…5f1abacked Yes | 5c | 1,271$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 1,191$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,175$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,070$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 999.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…cc4cbacked Yes | 11c | 943.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…83f6backed Yes | 2c | 822.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6047…f33cbacked Yes | 1c | 796$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 5c | 659.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 4c | 515$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aca…38cdbacked Yes | 3c | 433.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 10c | 312.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 269$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e12…e4e7backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 22–August 29?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.