Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03de1f325dfbf82c26dee7f1e2fa998bac6e23fa7655fa1c44b7b209f5c9a66c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 5c | 1,832$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 6c | 999.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 3c | 910.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked No | 80c | 817.15$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.07 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 733.33$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.94 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 41c | 454$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 400.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed No | 69c | 310.97$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 15c | 273$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 11c | 148$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…2c79backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 23c | 93.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 76.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 60.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 70c | 40.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 59c | 26.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 75c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca3b…4d0fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 16?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 12?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 14?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.