Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41fdb23ef0e8febd60027332669bb94b48f8950c255aff09f55debc09ea3755d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 8c | 1,436$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,115$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,022$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 871.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff58…c3d4backed Yes | 2c | 660.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d96…1bdcbacked Yes | 2c | 618.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 568.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…61fabacked Yes | 3c | 400.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 5c | 378.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked Yes | 20c | 363.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 343.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…bff1backed Yes | 6c | 247.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 164$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 24c | 55.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7442…d193backed Yes | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 15?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 12?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 14?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.