TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$534,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$509,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $534,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c00…b587backed No46c103,955$47,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,135.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7861…1104backed Yes54c103,955$56,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,135.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes40c32,358$13,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,004.4748224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98b0…1d3fbacked Yes26c31,133$8,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,094.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53c…563bbacked No74c31,133$23,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,094.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+55.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes27c28,520$7,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,591.123225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4573…51b7backed Yes27c22,282$6,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,016.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97db…8513backed No73c22,282$16,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,016.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Yes22c7,058$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.28825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes31c6,880$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.5212040%48 W · 72 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes13c6,320$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.6111850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x7b9d…79eabacked Yes40c5,230$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.29100%0 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes44c4,911$2,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.676439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes68c4,589$3,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,108.32050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked No45c3,738$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.61540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+195.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ea9…d092backed Yes62c3,367$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes59c3,166$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.113839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29fc…06b0backed Yes46c2,711$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.782352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes60c2,669$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.81757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fd0…8bc2backed Yes55c2,650$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.142035%7 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes63c2,637$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.9213525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes61c2,507$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.451566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes53c2,236$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.99137.7%1 W · 12 L-6.1wins-0.47per pick54cpaid-89.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x8ce1…5f46backed Yes40c2,178$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No55c2,132$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.1257636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes48c1,926$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.0127828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed Yes69c1,760$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.0960%0 W · 6 L-3.8wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes55c1,691$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.133429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes74c1,500$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.67254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes23c1,494$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.046538.5%25 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes69c1,460$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.568035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes24c1,450$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.3510331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No65c1,437$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.371,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes48c1,421$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.835131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+81.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee8…1805backed Yes69c1,413$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.1830%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes23c1,304$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.924957.1%28 W · 21 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+59.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes70c1,140$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8014045%18 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Yes38c1,133$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.463036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c1,086$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.521,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed Yes19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1903221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+165%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes62c999.96$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.9838023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes17c964.24$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.186622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes35c958.58$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.1916744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd77b…24abbacked Yes16c897.78$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes33c867.99$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.812030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes29c729.81$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.42425%6 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf88…bc20backed Yes22c700$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.62045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x113e…3febbacked Yes31c700$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9352…cab5backed No69c700$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2173100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bdd…31acbacked Yes59c677.54$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No37c600$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3782548%12 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes54c566.15$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.811454.4%62 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4145…fc24backed Yes59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002441.7%10 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652913.8%4 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-8.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed No29c487.2$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.692245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed No80c449.8$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.963441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed No73c436.9$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.962931%9 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes29c417.11$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1222334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c398.63$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd03b…d30bbacked Yes23c376.63$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.34120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Yes41c367.8$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.036530.8%20 W · 45 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-34.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes66c332.98$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.445123.5%12 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No67c313.97$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.611520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes62c293.24$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.983020%6 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes18c284.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.943718.9%7 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed Yes21c284$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.642317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43f2…ae58backed Yes42c283$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.86450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed No57c280$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.43732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab39…c22fbacked Yes12c272$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.64922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59cf…4549backed Yes28c266$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.48728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5468…d86ebacked Yes58c246.56$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes35c240$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2812630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6735…1e6cbacked No28c240$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab11…e318backed Yes22c233.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No68c233$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.597762.3%48 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a47…7177backed Yes65c232.22$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.111540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No64c230$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.955653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…766dbacked Yes20c230$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.380%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes44c229$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.762828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No57c204.71$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8119957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005a…9318backed Yes28c201$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…c7aabacked Yes44c177.27$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No73c159.88$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.729659.4%57 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1e9…9f36backed Yes60c157.3$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+56.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62bf…f9f2backed No28c154$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0059…6a87backed No42c153.02$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffdb…411dbacked Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501650%8 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89fa…2891backed Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7284…4f6cbacked Yes55c147.27$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ad…6351backed Yes72c145$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…8adcbacked Yes29c140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf10…1412backed No43c137.5$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid+20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7297…9911backed Yes72c135$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eeb…a7e9backed No36c133.67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+103.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x844b…06b1backed Yes28c133$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.24540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa04d…c775backed Yes27c131.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd713…4662backed No52c125$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.52263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed No61c124.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.84647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.