World Politics · resolved market
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe36b2294a52e0d9c2f0ff6eb3973a52ba4d20e96d180a082efaeb9d31db47830
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $559,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $559,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 135,146$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.73 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…d30bbacked Yes | 0c | 29,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,113$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 0c | 19,104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 15,804$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 11,318$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…36c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 7,467$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.84 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58a…25b6backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…dda3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 0c | 4,504$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 5c | 3,893$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.71 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…4ab1backed Yes | 1c | 2,724$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 2c | 1,928$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,698$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 8c | 944.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceef…ec6dbacked Yes | 5c | 620.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 557.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 433.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 4c | 406.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 300.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 12c | 215$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…008dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15d…7545backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…0016backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 79c | 116.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe452…680fbacked Yes | 24c | 84.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?this page
- Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?Yes won
- Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.