TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$788,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$802,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $788,650 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes48c101,386$48,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,156.0148224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed1…12a8backed No54c99,483$54,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,019.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba75…5eedbacked Yes46c99,483$45,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,019.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d03…31f1backed Yes72c29,411$21,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,235.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe659…8cf8backed No28c29,411$8,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,235.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+144.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes76c28,706$21,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,906.7923225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ff…b518backed Yes67c28,345$18,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,438.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x179b…4398backed No33c28,345$9,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,438.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4573…51b7backed No30c22,175$6,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,630.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f2…0932backed Yes70c22,175$15,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,630.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes2c17,285$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,872.515131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+81.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b8…f0cbbacked Yes71c12,515$8,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,614.961957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes53c10,000$5,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,685.1611247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab8a…bbb8backed Yes5c9,538$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,037.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,223%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes43c9,502$4,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,372.7527828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No13c8,465$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.111850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x29fc…06b0backed Yes47c7,773$3,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,089.212352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf330…f779backed Yes25c7,117$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,353.162040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes17c6,793$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,609.4413525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No24c6,628$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.153718.9%7 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes5c6,583$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,283.066434.4%22 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes75c5,999$4,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.7511853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes21c5,929$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,711.377238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes57c5,921$3,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.2926139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb30f…9505backed Yes31c5,366$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,695.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fad…1d0abacked No56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800137.7%1 W · 12 L-6.1wins-0.47per pick54cpaid-89.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes74c4,786$3,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.344645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes49c4,010$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.231566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes66c3,634$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.872050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes57c3,290$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.447650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes6c3,280$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,090.971650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+90.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes4c3,000$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8921540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+195.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No20c2,950$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.5612040%48 W · 72 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed Yes3c2,680$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,586.324753.2%25 W · 22 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5903…23ffbacked Yes57c2,660$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.441526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No9c2,474$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.66883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x246f…773cbacked Yes73c2,053$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.241070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd77b…24abbacked Yes43c2,016$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.831050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bd6…5554backed Yes1c1,850$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.47250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+4,087.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c1,529$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.8257636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No28c1,481$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.2810331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes68c1,426$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.391533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-40.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c1,363$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.634521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes25c1,344$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.567238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes51c1,284$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.852548%12 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa767…1cb1backed No14c1,196$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked No72c1,065$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7663016.7%5 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes79c1,047$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.896622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x381d…f6b2backed Yes4c1,045$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick6cpaid+1,027.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes45c1,020$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.926538.5%25 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No19c1,000$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1943221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+165%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…0800backed Yes79c1,000$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2152128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ded…5eadbacked No35c995$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x519a…2ec7backed Yes76c990$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No65c888.92$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.81,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes2c765.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.8220614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes29c754.8$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.863540%14 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed No20c705$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.372317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes27c667.94$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.175123.5%12 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x909d…41f3backed Yes79c650$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.961127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed Yes71c644.85$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.913751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab11…e318backed Yes77c635.16$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes73c600$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1634238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No21c583.26$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.324766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes70c550.93$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.951392.3%12 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick71cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b9d…79eabacked No21c532.02$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.22100%0 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes74c519.79$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.043250%16 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf88…bc20backed No20c494.08$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.422045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes33c460.79$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.8916744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e9b…ae91backed No26c399.04$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffdb…411dbacked Yes66c363.09$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.091650%8 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7364…d44ebacked Yes79c351.53$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.695100%5 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc68…47bdbacked Yes66c350.58$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.484100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd0…8bc2backed Yes67c349$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.582035%7 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x956f…e875backed Yes65c315.41$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.971963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed No73c301$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.433429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a1…57b9backed Yes79c290$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.35333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f2…ae58backed No43c280$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes75c277$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.254143.9%18 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53f4…e89bbacked Yes52c261.04$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+161.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc20b…2cc0backed Yes61c254.79$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4a0…47c6backed Yes77c251$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.87742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes73c250$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.751233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes79c250$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.53666.7%24 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a6a…4846backed Yes80c234.01$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.411693.8%15 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick74cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No35c233.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.514156.1%23 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No45c229$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.822828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59bf…9a5fbacked No23c221.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2ab…8491backed Yes45c200$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x488c…64a5backed Yes75c196.62$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.32580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe10…8d89backed Yes51c194.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.64100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80b5…19b9backed Yes75c188.13$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b0…f9a8backed No55c170$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.71241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No27c168.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.714957.1%28 W · 21 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+59.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes21c167.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8215237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes15c160$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.687331.5%23 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No25c157.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.571,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071a…df8ebacked Yes79c151.64$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.291450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4987…93f2backed Yes76c148.12$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf4e…828ebacked No26c135.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.13520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.