World Politics · resolved market
Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47aa82bc10dfc85e39d34a7ede15bd45df27fb4d3112f3bce59aaf139a0fbf8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $404,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1829…7c25backed Yes | 1c | 35,344$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 3c | 27,109$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.58 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 1c | 26,287$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.23 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 13,832$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb70…d3dcbacked Yes | 2c | 12,800$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 32c | 12,748$4,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,137.38 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 12,374$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,988$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…77d6backed Yes | 2c | 10,660$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 20c | 6,852$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.73 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked No | 66c | 6,260$4,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.89 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 6,221$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 35c | 5,803$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.06 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,444$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac7…3026backed Yes | 41c | 4,953$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 4,687$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.22 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 32c | 4,120$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.41 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 1c | 3,914$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…ceb2backed Yes | 1c | 3,516$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 65c | 2,849$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.9 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…a4ccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,133$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,936$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8abd…df85backed Yes | 1c | 1,839$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 31c | 1,600$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.8 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…36c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,552$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed No | 65c | 1,540$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.15 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,528$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 41c | 1,209$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…2560backed Yes | 37c | 1,130$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6146…312abacked Yes | 8c | 1,037$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…9341backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 35c | 982.29$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.15 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 44c | 836.09$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.96 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 16c | 758.28$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 66c | 653.25$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…3584backed Yes | 32c | 621.4$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 52c | 609.91$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.85 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 46c | 609.42$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.39 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 35c | 354.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6879…8adfbacked Yes | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…073dbacked Yes | 35c | 309.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…acb6backed Yes | 31c | 274.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…7a58backed Yes | 57c | 256.34$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 48c | 226.9$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…67c2backed Yes | 42c | 161.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 44c | 158.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…fb2abacked Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 69c | 144.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…06b0backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 32c | 130$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…8949backed Yes | 49c | 111.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…008dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…d4e5backed Yes | 60c | 83.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…8540backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…e086backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…c04bbacked Yes | 40c | 46.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf185…1bd1backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e6…572dbacked Yes | 38c | 35.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…af04backed Yes | 38c | 34.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…01f3backed Yes | 38c | 33.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…accbbacked Yes | 38c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…86fbbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…bf78backed Yes | 38c | 29.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…2400backed Yes | 51c | 29.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3677…a852backed Yes | 38c | 29.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34c…a37cbacked Yes | 37c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 54c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…c719backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -8.2wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -37%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbf88…bc20backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?this page
- Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?Yes won
- Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.