TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$419,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$401,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $419,391 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06b…4faebacked No13c44,885$5,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,880.813823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9810…f117backed Yes80c14,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No3c8,628$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.741051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed No0c5,871$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.74728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe5…0309backed No5c4,550$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No19c4,005$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.258220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb688…75a6backed No0c3,974$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ca…f294backed No4c3,224$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.691010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-87.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No10c3,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3103221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No19c2,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4806216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c2,119$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.052560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No8c1,897$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5324315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac9…8469backed Yes78c1,796$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No2c1,658$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.692110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ac3…3189backed No2c1,600$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3769…2799backed No4c1,554$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda01…9694backed No3c1,527$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.65520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No20c1,522$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.816010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9596…b1e4backed Yes70c1,424$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.051145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No2c1,133$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.061717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+103.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No6c909.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.051428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c791.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.071,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a8…e606backed Yes76c593.13$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.13966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7407…fe13backed No12c588.06$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x89df…c5ddbacked No4c550.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x654b…c791backed No4c512.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked No3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%0 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e9d…adb2backed No24c420.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No19c400$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No15c393.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.522263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccec…28ffbacked No14c384.71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed Yes78c367.85$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.851163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaab…6d0dbacked No3c352.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfda7…153bbacked Yes75c333.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.333100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcbe…e27ebacked Yes75c313.95$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.83650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d9d…35c4backed No6c290$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-73.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeae2…6789backed Yes72c278.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfad5…780ebacked Yes73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No17c264.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.82240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aea…4f6bbacked No5c236.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.19520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-66.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked No5c200.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.982450%12 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed Yes59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cf…2adabacked Yes78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No40c195$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.853831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6a…a012backed Yes74c191$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x175b…93aebacked No35c184.26$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b96…0213backed Yes79c176.73$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.58366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes77c166.52$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x725f…8448backed Yes61c164.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+166.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked No32c159.73$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.672250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed No37c154.23$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.751855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes63c150$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes67c149.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.551450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x064c…2de1backed No26c148.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…025ebacked Yes61c147$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe8…b7e4backed Yes70c142.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5911…e003backed Yes77c130.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45a1…d54abacked Yes80c130$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No17c119.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.881442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No37c102$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.742245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…fcb0backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6c0…bfe4backed Yes68c89.13$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c83.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7740712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x65c1…c741backed Yes77c82.76$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.173100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9613…7528backed Yes61c82.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba3…269ebacked No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+60.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8035…c57fbacked Yes63c79.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No16c77.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.482646.2%12 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed Yes70c76.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd240…562cbacked Yes66c69.87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.53540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec0…413fbacked Yes72c69.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Yes69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x199c…4d76backed No21c56.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes60c55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7396…195fbacked Yes80c53.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a2…7bb3backed Yes68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ad…4a55backed No41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes59c44.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.075648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b36…e142backed Yes66c41.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2352…665ebacked Yes68c35.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d64…3171backed Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9625…1deebacked Yes73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.19per pick68cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75f3…a1a6backed Yes67c29.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec30…2e85backed Yes73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…c174backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2987…8512backed Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b8…e423backed Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdd…ddfebacked Yes66c16.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9054…1f14backed Yes70c15.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9723…8324backed Yes79c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b78…f10fbacked Yes79c13.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6927…8d9cbacked Yes80c13.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa4…96dbbacked Yes80c13.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.