AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61d62c121ea0dbbd37615a1cdf56d073dde0f23d0854c80fe31faae7dcf3e5cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $283,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $243,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 8c | 31,672$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.8 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…ac22backed Yes | 1c | 7,800$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,399$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 5c | 3,476$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,972$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.25 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,608$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…9694backed Yes | 9c | 2,582$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 2,109$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked No | 80c | 1,871$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…b271backed Yes | 21c | 1,163$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 8c | 999.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a61…a2e4backed Yes | 3c | 968.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 901$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 830.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 812.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked Yes | 7c | 786.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…4dd1backed Yes | 10c | 712.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…f8b4backed Yes | 17c | 602.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…9dfbbacked Yes | 15c | 599.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…c8a5backed Yes | 5c | 535.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…9cd1backed Yes | 4c | 514.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 25c | 465$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…aa22backed Yes | 11c | 446.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…91c0backed Yes | 3c | 434$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed Yes | 14c | 399.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 9c | 399.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b8…c1f7backed Yes | 10c | 394$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ef…57f5backed Yes | 15c | 332.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…153bbacked No | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 22c | 319.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c1…54b0backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9a…1524backed Yes | 11c | 264.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…2980backed No | 67c | 254.81$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c9…5152backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…02d1backed No | 65c | 245.15$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 31c | 242$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03b…4ebcbacked No | 70c | 234.71$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 11c | 228.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…a3dcbacked No | 70c | 216.14$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67c…9df2backed No | 69c | 212.04$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0567…8b3bbacked Yes | 31c | 211.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…db17backed Yes | 25c | 201.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 9c | 198.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 27c | 147.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed Yes | 15c | 136.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57c…165bbacked No | 70c | 129.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…7631backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4848…c4c4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…959cbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f4…b4adbacked No | 69c | 88.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd240…562cbacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 64c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe5…0309backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?this page
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes won
- Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on August 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.