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Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$154,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,097 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedc0…99f3backed No14c6,510$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.883435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3007…763abacked Yes68c5,320$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7201361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed No15c2,886$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.963743.2%16 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+123.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1fa…b277backed No25c2,593$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-59.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7214…433bbacked No60c2,585$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.882759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x800f…3586backed No20c2,523$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes77c2,325$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed Yes59c1,582$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.351442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes76c1,531$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.424425%11 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f07…9517backed No39c1,405$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked No11c1,360$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.623525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8b…6503backed No16c1,310$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Yes52c1,303$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.573748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No48c1,281$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.064637%17 W · 29 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No7c1,240$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0620549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e23…7788backed No33c1,122$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No7c1,115$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.481235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes79c1,101$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2306036.7%22 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes75c1,075$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.513360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No30c1,039$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3142642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3837…fbb3backed No9c1,008$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked No27c975.3$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.281070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4083…363fbacked No13c900$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9062…96c3backed No29c891.14$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No17c838.15$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.19637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No19c831.06$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8413629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5cc7…8a27backed No12c825.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3c…dc0dbacked No40c799.14$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed Yes56c797.4$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.42065%13 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes51c795.18$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.674833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d6…665ebacked No17c784.62$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b8…acebbacked No29c739.08$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f0…0272backed No33c729.06$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5bc…c11abacked No42c710.26$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+46.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No8c694$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes62c643.31$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.459154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes64c625$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2258056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed No20c584.94$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.138951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes60c582.52$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.527640.8%31 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2256…2225backed No7c555$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.05616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f39…d452backed No41c536.31$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x290e…b493backed No41c530$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No8c529.84$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.911976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No24c525.15$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.398143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No24c518.47$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.886451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes74c515.6$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.633464.7%22 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd19e…9781backed No36c484.57$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.46425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes58c475.99$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.4486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes65c468.29$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.698058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd8…3047backed No10c456.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No23c455.45$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked Yes68c455.43$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.732552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes64c449.99$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.528750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd50a…ec9bbacked No11c443$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9c…80d2backed No24c441.25$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No28c440.14$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.638452.4%44 W · 40 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes72c434.32$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.926936.2%25 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4581…c6adbacked No38c433.29$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.62977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No23c430.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007741.6%32 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa52f…0425backed No46c417.56$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.292240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…41edbacked No30c415.45$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cb…c997backed No77c403.96$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe848…282ebacked No36c390$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+38.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes54c387.27$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.1217931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes61c384.98$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.945332.1%17 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes69c360.52$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1421160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No42c333$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.863458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed Yes59c327.1$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.11837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f2…f06ebacked Yes63c317.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.311266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a26…a80fbacked No43c316.2$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1371250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bec…7e15backed No44c303$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.32955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7629…82e4backed No17c299.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe4…8cbfbacked No13c297.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2840…4f2abacked Yes77c295.94$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7d…6cc4backed No28c295.61$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.81450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ad…117cbacked No17c293.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e34…9cd8backed No20c290$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc351…0f89backed No20c277.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…1f26backed No40c270$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x098e…310dbacked No38c265$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-68.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee07…0647backed Yes55c250.89$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.92035%7 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No42c250$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.545843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed No44c246.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4667…ba10backed No32c239$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.15650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe341…7607backed No38c232.7$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2185…b5a5backed No44c225.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…1e34backed No45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02cc…21c1backed No13c220.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed Yes56c220$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.631758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No45c217.71$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.972365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+87.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes58c210$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.13847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x761a…d9babacked No53c208.71$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3086…fb7ebacked Yes73c208.31$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c200.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305829.3%17 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8b…1ea1backed No36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No30c193.48$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.73438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-38.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed Yes33c191.88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.852540%10 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e8b…fe1cbacked No16c185.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.