World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8398d14e939b1bdf1252a09e254c0366185b33b6d523b4ab1c7fdf02f32edc03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 29c | 1,111$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.84 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 32c | 900$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.24 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 68c | 665.36$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked No | 28c | 359.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 31c | 272.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 68c | 252.86$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 27c | 182$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 161.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c6…c9f9backed Yes | 65c | 153.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 57c | 149$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 24c | 144$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…16edbacked Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…ccc8backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…7674backed No | 28c | 88.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…d074backed Yes | 77c | 65.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Yes | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 71c | 64.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 78c | 56.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 74c | 51.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 25c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…a9c5backed Yes | 75c | 30.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…1cffbacked Yes | 75c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…b99cbacked Yes | 75c | 26.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.