TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,451 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88b0…b118backed Yes20c715.25$146 inWon+$569.567944.3%35 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbd…ed66backed No75c530$398 inLost-$398.42630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes25c500$125 inWon+$3751163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+42.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No71c399.98$285 inLost-$285.491233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No76c316$240 inLost-$239.565139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c202$42 inWon+$159.741,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes29c172.41$50 inWon+$122.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+174.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No71c126$89 inLost-$89.4615230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes23c100$23 inWon+$7757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe991…9969backed Yes24c100$24 inWon+$76.52445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes25c97.74$24 inWon+$73.797932.9%26 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes25c93.6$23 inWon+$70.6977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6c0…a2c4backed Yes19c77.03$15 inWon+$62.03425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb084…92dcbacked No75c57.2$43 inLost-$42.94025%10 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No75c50$38 inLost-$37.51,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed No76c50$38 inLost-$38922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x61d8…9c51backed Yes34c50$17 inWon+$32.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+68.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes26c50$13 inWon+$372317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes23c50$12 inWon+$38.58726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+258.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes29c50$15 inWon+$35.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed No70c50$35 inLost-$351747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb1…0ffdbacked No80c50$40 inLost-$40850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+64.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed No74c25$19 inLost-$18.53348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No77c22$17 inLost-$16.861968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.6wins+0.24per pick44cpaid+137.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xccee…5724backed No73c20$15 inLost-$14.591656.3%9 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No75c20$15 inLost-$15.0714033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.