World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb109e84b1c1216cdd829dd8911e1750dde375f27a394b1824e9cf3913d1cfa81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 52c | 1,662$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.19 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,589$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…9474backed Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…0ae4backed Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 44c | 945.8$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.1 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…6c82backed No | 44c | 915$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac18…9154backed Yes | 58c | 840$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…bd38backed No | 44c | 760$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf02…3638backed Yes | 57c | 675$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…96e0backed No | 42c | 660$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…cf10backed No | 44c | 645$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…8a10backed Yes | 56c | 580$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 52c | 557.76$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.63 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…99f5backed No | 43c | 540$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 46c | 492.57$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…382ebacked Yes | 56c | 465$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…0ed3backed No | 44c | 455$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed No | 65c | 368.24$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 44c | 348.51$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.6 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…f2aebacked Yes | 56c | 330$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…bc95backed Yes | 57c | 325$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…b31cbacked No | 42c | 315$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 51c | 310$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.7 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 52c | 306.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.59 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 47c | 297.91$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.91 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…16edbacked Yes | 57c | 264.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8332…7c18backed No | 43c | 240$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2e50backed No | 43c | 240$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f90…bacebacked No | 44c | 240$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…8581backed No | 44c | 225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf39…5bb4backed No | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked No | 51c | 213.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e5…ba7dbacked No | 43c | 205$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf54…5abbbacked Yes | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 71c | 170.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…5390backed Yes | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 64c | 139.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…e168backed Yes | 56c | 135$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…7793backed Yes | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…1bafbacked No | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…61f0backed No | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 45c | 109.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…15edbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7beb…7f6bbacked No | 44c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked No | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 54c | 86.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed Yes | 57c | 70.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d4…88ecbacked Yes | 58c | 68.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…a641backed No | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 59.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked Yes | 62c | 56.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…d31ebacked Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +174.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…fe7bbacked No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…82d5backed Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 57c | 25.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…dad3backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 56c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.