World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70792dccd373274c2162f6c17b5088e5dd8388f9844430480fc35eea67174eda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb315…b839backed Yes | 66c | 33,576$22,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,415.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x231c…c5ddbacked No | 34c | 33,576$11,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,415.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed No | 46c | 305.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 31c | 269$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed No | 40c | 250.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 71c | 248.98$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 33c | 224.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 26c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 30c | 173.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 68c | 170.43$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 28c | 169.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 72c | 138.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 33c | 135.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…037cbacked Yes | 73c | 129.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…fbacbacked Yes | 57c | 122.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c4…ff35backed No | 37c | 99.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 86.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853d…790fbacked No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 63c | 60.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 23c | 55.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 69c | 49.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 67c | 45.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 26c | 39.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 71c | 32.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…0394backed Yes | 62c | 32.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb880…8890backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…d5d4backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…cee6backed Yes | 75c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.