World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39b754a2dd0e0b8433d5de711fb46abf6f3f893d9b72ffd57864052213322e7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dc0…b57bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…52ddbacked No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…2548backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…403cbacked No | 48c | 995$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…0b73backed Yes | 52c | 950$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…a641backed Yes | 52c | 875$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…8b14backed Yes | 52c | 845$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d3…3a65backed Yes | 52c | 815$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…443cbacked No | 48c | 795$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906d…34a4backed No | 48c | 785$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…245abacked Yes | 52c | 735$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…faedbacked No | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e5…ba7dbacked No | 48c | 580$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…f34fbacked No | 48c | 545$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0653…690ebacked Yes | 52c | 535$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…3e68backed No | 48c | 525$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…7bd5backed No | 48c | 485$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0f03backed Yes | 52c | 450$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…1bafbacked Yes | 52c | 420$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 11c | 406.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3356…11f3backed No | 48c | 375$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…5390backed No | 48c | 355$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68b0…d1a5backed Yes | 52c | 355$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e1…64dbbacked No | 48c | 350$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 46c | 329.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…62e9backed No | 48c | 315$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…3124backed Yes | 52c | 315$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…5942backed No | 48c | 310$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 54c | 300$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.9 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…1f1bbacked No | 48c | 285$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d8…a7d3backed Yes | 52c | 265$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…26fabacked Yes | 52c | 260$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8c…a4ecbacked Yes | 52c | 260$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…a5b0backed No | 48c | 215$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 52c | 211.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc85…b081backed No | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca46…b2ebbacked No | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…d203backed No | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked No | 50c | 198.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…9a9bbacked No | 48c | 195$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…93b3backed Yes | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…cb39backed Yes | 52c | 170$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…d007backed No | 48c | 165$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…47bbbacked No | 48c | 165$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…37adbacked Yes | 52c | 155$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 45c | 145$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 49c | 131.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…43f3backed No | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…ba87backed No | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…53ffbacked Yes | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 114.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…820bbacked Yes | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 51c | 87.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 54c | 84.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…3ee3backed Yes | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 49c | 70.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…cc49backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 58c | 40.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 49c | 37.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Yes | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 77c | 33.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a9…628fbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db4…241cbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab4…9464backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.