World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac5643f93525d9f6fccc2a50a49f998e03de789f81f62c95f24c7a028cb33e25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a0d…1bafbacked No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…9d63backed No | 61c | 830$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7695…4cd7backed No | 60c | 795$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…de78backed Yes | 39c | 745$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e00…c7dcbacked Yes | 39c | 720$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…58c3backed Yes | 39c | 715$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…47c8backed Yes | 39c | 640$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906d…34a4backed Yes | 40c | 605$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…cc49backed No | 61c | 595$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0653…690ebacked No | 61c | 570$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…5bfabacked Yes | 39c | 470$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…896bbacked No | 61c | 465$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…109bbacked No | 61c | 430$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…9474backed Yes | 39c | 425$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffa…0ae6backed Yes | 39c | 350$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…5edcbacked No | 61c | 345$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2e50backed Yes | 40c | 315$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…e6ccbacked Yes | 39c | 315$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…511dbacked Yes | 39c | 290$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 60c | 288.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1296…0d1fbacked Yes | 40c | 285$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…03cebacked Yes | 39c | 285$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…ea44backed No | 61c | 275$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…f0f2backed Yes | 39c | 275$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…ea64backed No | 61c | 255$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…cb39backed Yes | 39c | 255$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…9eeebacked Yes | 39c | 235$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 60c | 219$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…95b1backed No | 60c | 205$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…75a4backed No | 61c | 170$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…438cbacked No | 61c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 80c | 157.79$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 40c | 144.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…330abacked No | 61c | 140$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…394ebacked No | 61c | 130$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1eb…933cbacked No | 61c | 130$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c00…b206backed No | 61c | 125$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…2548backed No | 61c | 115$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…5390backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 69c | 108.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 33c | 107.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848b…8d58backed Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…f8eebacked No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…2ff5backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…be45backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…615fbacked Yes | 41c | 60.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc0…b57bbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 44.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…d7debacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 40c | 35.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c7…b32bbacked Yes | 41c | 35.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.