UFC · resolved market
Will Trump attend UFC 318?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe48c798d7efa9af332b9ef68b7b5eac7945b0f1310259696894db29c4ac14510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 10c | 8,093$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.5 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 9c | 4,368$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.78 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes | 30c | 3,322$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.39 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 9c | 2,510$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.19 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…6d46backed Yes | 3c | 1,911$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 68c | 1,800$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.78 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,556$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…cadabacked No | 74c | 1,431$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,200$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 9c | 1,062$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…6d4fbacked Yes | 6c | 857.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 26c | 677.46$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 13c | 591$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Yes | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 12c | 516.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 29c | 509.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 21c | 392$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 62c | 378.41$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.11 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06fe…83ccbacked Yes | 30c | 336.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…f202backed Yes | 7c | 295.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked No | 78c | 295$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 31c | 291.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Yes | 6c | 252.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd9…75b6backed Yes | 29c | 238.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6251…e10cbacked No | 66c | 178.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 77c | 171.61$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…41e8backed No | 68c | 157.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 68c | 157$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 127.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8516…e7ccbacked Yes | 36c | 112.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 34c | 101.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05eb…2e7ebacked No | 66c | 98.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…d840backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Yes | 29c | 85.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 38c | 79.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 34c | 78.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 57c | 59.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…f0ccbacked No | 68c | 58.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b91…f8e7backed Yes | 37c | 57.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…e11cbacked Yes | 37c | 51.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…52c1backed Yes | 34c | 44.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…484cbacked Yes | 23c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 38c | 42.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0047…025dbacked Yes | 36c | 41.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…8812backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…2d8bbacked No | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…ae4fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…f968backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 66c | 21.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…b13abacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.