World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc42e0808d0557bc06f2c779d071836ad6686332ecf0dd1aeb8c0bd0e1f6709e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 10c | 3,806$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.97 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 19c | 2,598$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.17 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 63c | 2,572$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.1 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 15c | 2,239$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.27 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 2,192$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.22 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b9…cfbcbacked Yes | 14c | 2,114$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a8…52febacked Yes | 49c | 2,062$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 6c | 2,006$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…5553backed Yes | 61c | 1,496$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.01 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…c9b5backed Yes | 56c | 1,445$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.43 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 12c | 1,440$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.97 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 33c | 1,196$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.04 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.79 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 35c | 952.54$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.14 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 15c | 844$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.07 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…7d71backed Yes | 12c | 822$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd8…e057backed Yes | 73c | 682.73$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 11c | 670$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…20cebacked Yes | 52c | 650$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 43c | 606.63$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265d…5329backed Yes | 10c | 504.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…cb7ebacked No | 52c | 466.23$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ac…ba11backed Yes | 15c | 459.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…e4d7backed Yes | 39c | 434.64$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e1…d804backed Yes | 11c | 428.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…6c33backed Yes | 10c | 424.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa3…181bbacked Yes | 10c | 405.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 65c | 382.06$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.23 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…9026backed Yes | 20c | 348.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Yes | 23c | 341$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 11c | 338.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…c039backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +104%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 6c | 310.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.54 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 266.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 69c | 209.45$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…0cf7backed Yes | 10c | 197.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626b…6117backed Yes | 10c | 194.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 74c | 193.52$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 17c | 191.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…aee4backed Yes | 12c | 170.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…6a54backed Yes | 8c | 168.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1898…7f34backed Yes | 12c | 161.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 35c | 160.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc433…d960backed Yes | 79c | 156.59$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…4455backed Yes | 16c | 156.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 9c | 155.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0d…982abacked Yes | 12c | 126.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec7…7a26backed Yes | 70c | 117.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 9c | 110.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 109.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 17c | 100.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…5effbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…62f5backed Yes | 64c | 87.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…0e55backed Yes | 52c | 77.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 14c | 72.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 25c | 63.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…c338backed Yes | 40c | 54.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…618cbacked Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…43acbacked Yes | 52c | 38.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…25b7backed Yes | 40c | 37.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x403b…db3bbacked Yes | 50c | 30.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats?this page
- Will another party win the most seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 150 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 25–49 seats?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 50–74 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 75–99 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.