World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win by 75–99 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c48fd6c382595626b5296783918455e00dec54da4aad0a577cec9733aca4e91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 14c | 3,582$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.82 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 15c | 2,353$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.41 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 13c | 1,535$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.87 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 11c | 1,478$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.98 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +443.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,031$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 16c | 733.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…6a01backed Yes | 17c | 592.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 18c | 520.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 80c | 467.18$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…c9b5backed Yes | 16c | 316.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 29c | 257$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…5e82backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 13c | 183.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6065…6d3ebacked Yes | 27c | 171.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…0cf7backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 31c | 106.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 32c | 88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…ff76backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 41.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win by 75–99 seats?this page
- Will another party win the most seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 150 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 25–49 seats?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 50–74 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.