World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9376f7d6663d3329e5ba90d9aa93426c5a2312a33f6d10dd89b0a684a16a5d40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 25,693$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.68 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,998$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 4,998$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…48bbbacked Yes | 5c | 4,362$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…27cfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,030$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7b…dc60backed Yes | 7c | 2,808$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…1475backed Yes | 6c | 1,697$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…9a7bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,691$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3086…9721backed Yes | 7c | 1,369$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…5379backed Yes | 7c | 1,335$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 1,165$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50f…38e9backed Yes | 7c | 1,007$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 757.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…ababbacked Yes | 7c | 649.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…7d71backed Yes | 7c | 567.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 9c | 425$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 389.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…7c38backed Yes | 8c | 362$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…7795backed Yes | 7c | 354$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed Yes | 6c | 317.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 7c | 288$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 236.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 9c | 210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaea…6decbacked Yes | 9c | 203$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…80e9backed Yes | 8c | 176.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11df…379ebacked Yes | 6c | 166.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c73…c3edbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89f…faa6backed Yes | 9c | 128$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats?this page
- Will another party win the most seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 150 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 25–49 seats?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 50–74 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 75–99 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.