World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65b1d577215e6f7f50efd2d66de608f0d4cdfd442949f46a69366ebb09f65cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x001e…dd8fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,220$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…7c38backed Yes | 4c | 5,993$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…4cd8backed Yes | 5c | 5,473$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…36c3backed Yes | 3c | 5,260$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7b…dc60backed Yes | 6c | 5,106$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 4,174$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3086…9721backed Yes | 4c | 4,010$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…7f3ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,970$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…48bbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,638$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9a…1ef4backed Yes | 2c | 2,677$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…5379backed Yes | 4c | 2,377$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…2d85backed Yes | 11c | 2,376$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…1475backed Yes | 5c | 1,771$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5d…f94dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,595$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…7d71backed Yes | 4c | 1,383$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c73…c3edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…33aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,007$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…26b7backed Yes | 6c | 876.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 731.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4052…7d38backed Yes | 3c | 620.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 548$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 6c | 525$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065f…87bdbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b47…9fc8backed Yes | 4c | 470.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 470$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 6c | 416.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed Yes | 6c | 325$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 206$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…7921backed No | 61c | 48.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 50c | 29.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats?this page
- Will another party win the most seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 150 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 25–49 seats?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 50–74 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 75–99 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.