World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win by 50–74 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7751d71ddaca43d313c5f9b0be026763c251461d2ed58b8373aabde01ac7e331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaeb7…d83abacked No | 67c | 56,766$38,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,732.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f4…b0bfbacked Yes | 33c | 56,756$18,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,729.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 38c | 2,807$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,724$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.36 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,280$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.72 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 32c | 1,111$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.51 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +443.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes | 31c | 918.28$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 1c | 858.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 24c | 835.85$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.6 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…c9b5backed Yes | 29c | 806.05$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.37 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 777.29$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.57 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 23c | 767.32$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.64 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 38c | 700$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 23c | 697.82$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 598.67$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.49 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…ff84backed No | 77c | 588.23$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…ed01backed Yes | 27c | 497.77$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 32c | 409.72$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 32c | 402.12$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 33c | 378.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.82 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 33c | 322$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…6a01backed Yes | 36c | 307.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…4351backed Yes | 16c | 299.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 67c | 295.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…0e7dbacked No | 70c | 284.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…e4d7backed Yes | 26c | 262$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 23c | 224.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 220.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 199.94$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 70c | 198.91$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…6ec0backed Yes | 29c | 196.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 67c | 191.19$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 67c | 169.2$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 64c | 168.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 67c | 136.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 71c | 136.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 34c | 133.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd984…83acbacked No | 61c | 123.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…a9c6backed Yes | 41c | 100.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…c338backed Yes | 32c | 94.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 85.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 35c | 84.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 69.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…1d1dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 69c | 51.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 41c | 49.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…25b7backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…0cf7backed Yes | 42c | 47.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…0944backed Yes | 31c | 43.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…865abacked Yes | 34c | 35.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 40c | 27.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0194…9c6abacked No | 68c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…3d3ebacked No | 68c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win by 50–74 seats?this page
- Will another party win the most seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 150 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 25–49 seats?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 75–99 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.