World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win by 25–49 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71be5ab306bae0db6b1a94cd7fcb872c1fbbe93de1e0ff10caf1cfd8a651b398
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 45c | 6,400$2,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,544.9 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 33c | 6,219$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,185.58 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…5553backed Yes | 36c | 3,668$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.63 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 43c | 3,656$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 70c | 2,600$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.5 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 24c | 1,879$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.27 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 42c | 1,765$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.24 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,445$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.94 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 55c | 1,170$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.87 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…c9b5backed Yes | 41c | 932.69$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…cb7ebacked Yes | 80c | 900$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 31c | 800.22$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.35 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 41c | 716$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.6 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed No | 60c | 656$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…05fdbacked Yes | 72c | 517.67$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 16c | 507.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.11 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 19c | 506.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 13c | 411.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked Yes | 21c | 383$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 15c | 343.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.23 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…c039backed Yes | 13c | 315.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +104%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 25c | 283.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…75ebbacked Yes | 66c | 264.63$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…8db0backed Yes | 38c | 263.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…ed01backed Yes | 46c | 261.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…9026backed Yes | 37c | 259.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 17c | 254.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.22 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed No | 42c | 240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 18c | 238.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.06 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 34c | 221.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.15 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 17c | 215.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…e4d7backed Yes | 71c | 210.23$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 210$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed Yes | 73c | 195.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 39c | 165.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 35c | 152.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 68c | 132.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes | 74c | 126$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 71cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 121.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b57…44c8backed Yes | 18c | 113.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +255.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 21c | 111$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626b…6117backed Yes | 18c | 110.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…0cf7backed Yes | 18c | 109.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 29c | 100.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…08f8backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 86.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…c338backed Yes | 40c | 79.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 29c | 73.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 69.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 38c | 62.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 28c | 59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…802fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 36c | 52.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win by 25–49 seats?this page
- Will another party win the most seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 150 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 50–74 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win by 75–99 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.