TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,169 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c4,500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51dc…d9e0backed Yes76c3,797$2,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,869.421315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes1c3,181$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.322674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes12c2,834$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.132254.5%12 W · 10 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick17cpaid+297.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x91ce…16ecbacked No36c2,412$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.04837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes60c2,186$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.383429.4%10 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes1c1,914$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes13c1,525$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5419011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0a…5baebacked No43c1,486$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes22c1,372$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.741729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a3…8790backed No40c880.66$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.42475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No5c824.39$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.174531.1%14 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.19per pick13cpaid+143.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c787.46$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.731,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1739…1263backed No21c677.5$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.911250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+40.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x467c…b348backed No79c663.46$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.641850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44d…df91backed Yes40c641.53$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.061145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No13c601$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.872913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x593b…b608backed Yes16c600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f6…1a5cbacked No36c598.97$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.97333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes30c526.45$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.816833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes18c517$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.062334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cce…5c11backed No30c504.68$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.68850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfceb…37dabacked Yes17c499.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes20c489.07$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.515028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No26c434.26$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.1328828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes15c392$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.81546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1897…c285backed Yes13c373$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed Yes79c359.22$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.991233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3000…0d25backed No44c340.51$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.511250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c337.57$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1157426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes14c325$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.52227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid+8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed Yes17c325$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.252040%8 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed Yes22c316$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.521241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked Yes19c295$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.052733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b6f…6890backed Yes15c283$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes46c282.66$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.412429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed No14c279.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes18c279$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.22540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed Yes14c269$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.111553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e86…8727backed No80c267.23$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes22c260$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.47510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed No21c257.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.73728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c256.39$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9372935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e20…04e2backed No79c251.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.891546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed Yes22c249$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.781233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked Yes14c242$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.42922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No46c240.24$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4210338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xface…9d17backed Yes56c220$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed Yes13c215$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.951338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No10c215$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1931668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+85%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed Yes15c197$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.551741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes67c193.43$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1218544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed Yes12c193$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.16825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+19%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked No73c182.3$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.221241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes13c177$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.012030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9be1…cb56backed Yes19c173$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.87933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3313…8355backed No57c171.55$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes18c168.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8189317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No73c165.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.219447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed No80c162$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.632142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30bc…ea78backed No19c160.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.151553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed Yes13c160$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5880…a675backed Yes14c158$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.121957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No49c155$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.483836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes13c153$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.891827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-55.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes14c151.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.89850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ed…e6b7backed No51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed No78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes28c142$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.761741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed No72c135$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.971163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+50.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes49c130.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6620418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes39c130.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5325122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No15c130$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.853135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes58c126$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.121637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No12c124.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2919337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed Yes14c121$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.941258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No22c120.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.381428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes19c113.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x890c…bfe4backed No14c107.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d4a…6cb1backed No57c104.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.634050%20 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e5…f261backed No26c104.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.41742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No31c103$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.079637.5%36 W · 60 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed Yes14c103$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.421040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeac…95c6backed Yes11c102$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No42c101$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.581090%9 W · 1 L+6.6wins+0.66per pick24cpaid+726.8%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-46.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe50b…8bdebacked No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x338e…646ebacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df5…8b4fbacked No21c99.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.991010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9005…b202backed No52c99.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fae…6853backed No78c99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.78728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes14c99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.861553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes18c96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.282737%10 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes15c92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+78.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes48c91.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2525731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked Yes15c90.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2916…752abacked No47c90$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.