AI · resolved market
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae3fbb421663b30f5438e3bdce9b45af2069bad5b5ef16ec17c38553ea42c787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…d9e0backed Yes | 76c | 3,797$2,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,869.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 1c | 3,181$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 12c | 2,834$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 17cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…16ecbacked No | 36c | 2,412$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 60c | 2,186$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.38 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 1c | 1,914$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,525$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.54 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0a…5baebacked No | 43c | 1,486$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 22c | 1,372$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…8790backed No | 40c | 880.66$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 5c | 824.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.17 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 787.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…1263backed No | 21c | 677.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 79c | 663.46$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…df91backed Yes | 40c | 641.53$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 13c | 601$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.87 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593b…b608backed Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…1a5cbacked No | 36c | 598.97$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 30c | 526.45$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 18c | 517$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…5c11backed No | 30c | 504.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 489.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 26c | 434.26$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.13 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 15c | 392$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…c285backed Yes | 13c | 373$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 79c | 359.22$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0d25backed No | 44c | 340.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 337.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 14c | 325$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 17c | 325$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 22c | 316$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 19c | 295$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed Yes | 15c | 283$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 46c | 282.66$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…d571backed No | 14c | 279.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes | 18c | 279$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 14c | 269$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…8727backed No | 80c | 267.23$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 22c | 260$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 21c | 257.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 256.39$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…04e2backed No | 79c | 251.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 22c | 249$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 14c | 242$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 46c | 240.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.42 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xface…9d17backed Yes | 56c | 220$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 13c | 215$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 10c | 215$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 15c | 197$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 67c | 193.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.12 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 12c | 193$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 73c | 182.3$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 13c | 177$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed Yes | 19c | 173$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…8355backed No | 57c | 171.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 168.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 73c | 165.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 80c | 162$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed No | 19c | 160.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 14c | 158$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 49c | 155$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 13c | 153$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 14c | 151.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…e6b7backed No | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 28c | 142$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 72c | 135$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 49c | 130.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 39c | 130.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No | 15c | 130$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 58c | 126$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 12c | 124.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed Yes | 14c | 121$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 22c | 120.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 19c | 113.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…bfe4backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed No | 57c | 104.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed No | 26c | 104.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 31c | 103$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 14c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 11c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 42c | 101$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +6.6wins | +0.66per pick | 24cpaid | +726.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…646ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9005…b202backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed No | 78c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 18c | 96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 15c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 91.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 15c | 90.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2916…752abacked No | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.